Texas starts with a 59.8% BOA win probability against Tennessee. These three game conditions create some of the biggest swings in the matchup.
Texas enters its matchup with Tennessee with a 59.8% win probability according to Burnt Orange Analytics.
But that number only tells us where the game starts.
The more interesting question is what happens once the game actually begins.
What if Tennessee controls the ground game? What if Texas struggles to run the football? What if the Longhorns win the turnover and explosive-play battles?
That is what the new BOA Win Path Builder is designed to answer.
Using 10,000 matchup-specific scenarios built around the current BOA Texas–Tennessee projection, we can isolate certain game conditions and see how Texas’ modeled win probability changes when those conditions occur.
Here are three of the biggest swings heading into the matchup.
1. Tennessee rushes for 200+ yards
Texas win probability: 46.9%
Change from baseline: -12.9 percentage points
This is one of the clearest danger signs for Texas.
BOA’s baseline gives the Longhorns a slight advantage in the matchup, but that advantage disappears if Tennessee is able to consistently move the football on the ground.
When Tennessee reaches at least 200 rushing yards in the BOA scenario pool, Texas’ win probability falls from 59.8% to 46.9%.
That is a significant swing.
The importance goes beyond the rushing total itself. A successful rushing attack can keep an offense ahead of schedule, create manageable third downs and prevent a defense from dictating the game.
For Texas, keeping Tennessee from consistently winning on the ground could be one of the most important parts of protecting its overall win path.
2. Texas rushes for fewer than 100 yards
Texas win probability: 47.8%
Change from baseline: -12.0 percentage points
The second major warning sign is on the other side of the ball.
When Texas finishes with fewer than 100 rushing yards, the BOA model drops the Longhorns’ win probability to 47.8%.
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Texas starts at 59.8% against Tennessee. BOA’s Win Path Builder identifies three conditions that move that probability by double digits.
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