What is Burnt Orange Analytics?

The premier destination for Texas football fans to access advanced statistics, recruiting data, and interactive predictive simulations.

BOA CFP Forecast

College Football Playoff

Current 12-team field, playoff probabilities, and an interactive national scenario engine.

2026 · 12-team format · Updated after Week 4

Most Likely Record

10-2

Most common simulated finish

Make CFP

93.1%

Texas

Most Likely Seed

When selected

First-Round Bye

61.9%

Semifinal

51.6%

National Title

16.4%

Through Week 4

Current CFP Bracket

Current field from the certified BOA rankings and completed results only.

Percent = BOA matchup win probability
Dot = single-path favorite, not a guaranteed simulation result

Swipe to view later rounds →

First Round

Quarterfinals

Semifinals

Championship

Title Favorite

Georgia

BOA projected finish

Projected CFP Bracket

Final results are locked; every remaining game uses BOA's current predicted winner (home probability >= 50%).

Percent = BOA matchup win probability
Dot = single-path favorite, not a guaranteed simulation result

Swipe to view later rounds →

First Round

Quarterfinals

Semifinals

Championship

Title Favorite

Georgia

Scenario Builder

Choose a team and force any remaining result. Your choices persist as you move across teams.

Texas vs Texas State

Final result locked

93%

Texas vs Ohio State

Final result locked

54%

Texas vs UTSA

Final result locked

90%

Texas at Tennessee

Final result locked

65%

Texas at Oklahoma

66%

Texas vs Florida

71%

Texas vs Ole Miss

69%

Texas vs Mississippi State

79%

W10

Texas at Missouri

70%

W11

Texas at LSU

56%

W12

Texas vs Arkansas

87%

W13

Texas at Texas A&M

68%

National CFP Board

Team	Most Likely Record	CFP	Bye	Title
Notre DameFBS Independents	11-1	97.1%	76.8%	13.8%
TexasSEC	10-2	93.1%	61.9%	16.4%
GeorgiaSEC	9-2	87.7%	51.1%	17.5%
MiamiACC	9-2	82.7%	33.9%	6.2%
Ohio StateBig Ten	9-3	80.0%	36.4%	13.5%
AlabamaSEC	9-2	74.4%	28.0%	9.8%
IndianaBig Ten	9-2	70.0%	28.1%	7.6%
Texas TechBig 12	9-2	62.9%	17.8%	2.6%
James MadisonSun Belt	9-2	62.8%	9.1%	0.5%
UtahBig 12	9-2	58.5%	14.7%	2.1%
UCLABig Ten	9-3	45.8%	9.5%	0.9%
BYUBig 12	8-3	43.3%	7.5%	1.4%
OregonBig Ten	8-3	34.3%	5.6%	2.4%
IowaBig Ten	8-3	29.8%	5.4%	1.1%
FloridaSEC	8-3	22.9%	3.2%	0.7%
LSUSEC	7-4	20.9%	2.8%	1.3%
DukeACC	8-3	20.2%	1.4%	0.2%
USCBig Ten	8-4	18.9%	2.0%	0.5%
Penn StateBig Ten	8-4	15.6%	1.1%	0.2%
Boise StatePac-12	8-2	13.9%	0.0%	0.1%
PittsburghACC	8-3	13.8%	0.6%	0.1%
New MexicoMountain West	8-3	12.3%	0.0%	0.0%
SMUACC	8-3	11.8%	0.1%	0.1%
Ole MissSEC	7-4	10.6%	0.8%	0.4%
MichiganBig Ten	7-5	9.1%	0.6%	0.2%