BOA’s Week 3 board is locked. Louisville-SMU and Florida-Auburn sit near 50/50, while Texas enters as the clearest favorite of the featured games.
Week 3 is where the board starts getting interesting.
BOA’s featured slate includes five games, but the model does not see them the same way. Two are essentially coin flips. Two more have clear favorites without being comfortable. One has a major gap between the teams.
The important thing to remember is that a BOA pick is not the same thing as certainty. A 50.1% win probability is barely a lean. A 64% win probability still leaves a meaningful upset path. Even a 90% favorite can lose if enough high-leverage plays break the wrong way.
Here is how BOA sees the five featured Week 3 games after incorporating results through Week 2.
SMU at Louisville: the closest game on the board
BOA pick: Louisville
Win probability: 50.1% Louisville, 49.9% SMU
BOA spread: Louisville -0.1
Projected score: Louisville 34, SMU 33
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