Texas and Ohio State meet Saturday night in Austin. From controlling the line of scrimmage and Ohio State’s pass rush to red-zone execution and containing Jeremiah Smith, BOA breaks down the numbers and matchups that could decide the game.
What Decides Saturday? The Keys to Texas vs. Ohio State
Saturday night in Austin brings one of the biggest games of the college football season.
No. 4 Texas hosts No. 1 Ohio State at 6:30 p.m. CT inside a sold-out DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, one year after the Buckeyes beat the Longhorns 14–7 in Columbus.
Both teams opened 2026 with dominant wins. Texas beat Texas State 59–7 and generated 516 yards of offense. Ohio State beat Ball State 56–3 while piling up 671 yards.
But those blowouts don't tell us much about what happens when two of the most talented rosters in college football meet.
This game should be decided by much smaller margins.
Here are the biggest keys for both teams.
1. TEXAS HAS TO WIN THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE
This is the biggest key to the game.
Texas' 59-point opener looked dominant on the scoreboard, but there was one number underneath the final score worth watching.
The Longhorns finished with 156 rushing yards on 36 attempts, good for 4.3 yards per carry.
But 45 of those yards came on one Hollywood Smothers run on Texas' opening possession.
Remove that one run, and Texas averaged just 3.2 yards per carry on its other 35 rushing attempts.
Against Ohio State, that has to improve.
Texas doesn't need to run for 250 yards. It does need to generate enough consistent production to avoid putting Arch Manning into obvious passing situations.
Second-and-6 gives Steve Sarkisian almost his entire playbook.
Third-and-9 gives Ohio State's pass rush the advantage.
And that's where another major part of this matchup comes into play.
Texas has to control Ohio State's pass rush.
Manning was well protected against Texas State. Texas State recorded only one sack, and Manning had enough time to complete 20 of 27 passes for 305 yards and four touchdowns.
Continue reading with a free BOA account
You’ve reached the member portion of this article. Create a free account or log in, and BOA will bring you straight back here to finish reading.
Free · No credit card · Keeps your BOA saves across devices
Texas starts with a 59.8% BOA win probability against Tennessee. These three game conditions create some of the biggest swings in the matchup.
Texas starts at 59.8% against Tennessee. BOA’s Win Path Builder identifies three conditions that move that probability by double digits.
Texas enters SEC play 3–0, but the trip to Tennessee will test the Longhorns in three critical areas: stopping the run, getting Arch Manning and the passing game back on track, and handling protection and discipline in Neyland.