Texas has opened 2-0 with a dominant win and a one-point victory over Ohio State. BOA’s data shows what is already real, what still needs context and why the Longhorns sit No. 1.
Two games are not enough to define a football team.
They are enough to start learning what kind of team it can become.
Texas has already lived through two completely different Saturdays. The Longhorns opened the season by overwhelming Texas State 59-7. One week later, they beat Ohio State 24-23 in a game that was essentially even underneath the final score.
One game showed Texas at full speed. The other showed Texas surviving when very little came easily.
Together, they have given us a much clearer picture of No. 1 Texas than either game could have provided on its own.
1. The ceiling is real
The opener against Texas State was the cleanest demonstration of what Texas can look like when everything is working.
Texas averaged 7.37 yards per play, converted 73.3% of its third downs and scored 6.56 points per drive.
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Texas starts with a 59.8% BOA win probability against Tennessee. These three game conditions create some of the biggest swings in the matchup.
Texas starts at 59.8% against Tennessee. BOA’s Win Path Builder identifies three conditions that move that probability by double digits.
Texas enters SEC play 3–0, but the trip to Tennessee will test the Longhorns in three critical areas: stopping the run, getting Arch Manning and the passing game back on track, and handling protection and discipline in Neyland.