BOA POSTGAME REPORT
Texas vs UTSA
September 19, 2026 · Verified final
Texas Football · Week 3
Texas 30 · 6 UTSA
A verified BOA postgame package built from the final score, CFBD box score, advanced game data, and certified player-grade inputs.
Final data confirmed
Source package: full
BOA Final Game Analytics
Texas 30 · 6 UTSA
Verified final-game analytics, BOA model review, player impact grades and season impact.
BOA Game Grade
79.5 C+
Overall
79.5C+
Offense
74.1
Defense
87.6
Special Teams
78.3
Team Coverage
99.0
Team Run Defense
89.6
Team Coverage is an automated unit grade from opponent passing efficiency, completions, yards/attempt, TD/INT rates and explosive passes. It is not an individual defender coverage grade. Team Run Defense uses opponent rushing efficiency, yards/carry, stuff rate and explosive runs.
What the game actually looked like
Six headline metrics answer six football questions. The deeper numbers remain available below.
Efficiency
How much value did each play create?
Texas
+0.053
Opponent
-0.093
Consistency
How often did the offense stay on schedule?
Texas
42.9%
Opponent
36.4%
Big-Play Threat
How damaging were successful plays?
Texas
0.564
Opponent
0.258
Disruption
How often did the defense create havoc?
Texas
27.9%
Opponent
14.3%
Field Position
Who consistently started with the shorter field?
Texas
Own 34
Opponent
Own 29
Texas +4.2 yards/drive
BOA Expected Win Share
How often would this statistical profile win?
Texas
92.2%
Opponent
7.8%
Advanced details
PPA / Play
Texas
-0.097
Opponent
-0.183
Pass PPA / Play
Texas
-0.215
Opponent
-0.282
Rush PPA / Play
Texas
+0.111
Opponent
-0.035
Pass EPA / Play
Texas
+0.086
Opponent
-0.132
Rush EPA / Play
Texas
+0.022
Opponent
-0.051
Early-Down EPA
Texas
-0.170
Opponent
+0.013
Passing-Down EPA
Texas
+0.458
Opponent
-0.046
Standard-Down Success
Texas
50.0%
Opponent
44.4%
Passing-Down Success
Texas
30.8%
Opponent
29.3%
Explosive Play Rate
Texas
8.3%
Opponent
10.0%
Stuff Rate
Texas
23.5%
Opponent
15.4%
Pressure Rate
Texas
25.0%
Opponent
14.3%
Points / Drive
Texas
2.31
Opponent
0.55
Points / Opportunity
Texas
2.70
Opponent
1.50
Yards / Play
Texas
4.88
Opponent
3.02
3rd Down
Texas
41.2%
Opponent
9.1%
Red Zone
Texas
—
Opponent
—
BOA Prediction Review
Predicted
37–10
Final
30–6
Margin Error
3.0 pts
Winner
Correct
Projected Texas margin +27.0 · actual +24.0.
Season Impact
The next BOA ratings/CFP refresh has not published yet. This section will update automatically when those approved outputs are available.
Biggest Game Swings
Largest preserved Texas win-probability changes from the live timeline.
1
(02:30) No Huddle-Shotgun #0 R.Brown rush middle for 3 yards loss to the UTSA31 (#26 B.Grays)
Q1 1:26 · Texas 10–3
+12.8 pts
2
(07:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass incomplete short left to #1 R.Wingo
Q1 2:10 · Texas 7–3
-11.7 pts
3
(12:04) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 H.Smothers rush middle for 11 yards gain to the UTSA03 (#18 A.Chapman; #22 E.Newell), 1ST DOWN
Q2 1:13 · Texas 16–3
+8.9 pts
4
(08:32) No Huddle-Shotgun #16 A.Manning pass incomplete short left, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Q2 8:32 · Texas 17–3
-4.9 pts
5
(05:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 O.McCown pass complete short right to #1 W.Henderson III caught at UTSA10, for 1 yard loss to the UTSA12 (#99 R.Wesley), out of bounds
Q3 4:39 · Texas 23–6
+4.7 pts
MVP Score
87.6
Game Impact · 50%
100.0
Raw impact 18.98
Performance · 30%
81.9
Certified BOA Performance Grade
High Leverage · 20%
65.0
Decisive verified production
BOA Game Impact
Who changed the game most? Impact is separate from how close a player came to a perfect performance.
#1 Game Impact
Cam Coleman
WR
19.0
Impact score
#2 Game Impact
Derrek Cooper
RB
14.1
Impact score
#3 Game Impact
Rasheem Biles
LB
7.8
Impact score
#4 Game Impact
Gianni Spetic
PK
7.5
Impact score
#5 Game Impact
Hero Kanu
DL
5.8
Impact score
#6 Game Impact
Hollywood Smothers
RB
3.8
Impact score
#7 Game Impact
Jelani McDonald
DB
3.5
Impact score
#8 Game Impact
Richard Wesley
EDGE
3.5
Impact score
#9 Game Impact
Derek Williams Jr.
DB
3.4
Impact score
BOA Player Performance + Defensive Impact
Offensive players receive position-specific Performance grades. Defensive players receive position-specific Defensive Impact from verified production and disruption. Individual coverage is intentionally not graded without defender-to-target assignment data.
Performance · full
Cam Coleman
WR · Very good
81.9
B
Defensive Impact · limited
Hero Kanu
DL · Good
76.4
B-
Pass Rush74.1
Run Disruption79.0
Tackling72.4
Ball Production69.6
Coverage: not individually graded
Performance · full
Gianni Spetic
PK · Average
74.6
C+
Defensive Impact · limited
Rasheem Biles
LB · Average
74.0
C+
Pass Rush70.5
Run Disruption67.9
Tackling74.3
Ball Production83.3
Coverage: not individually graded
Performance · full
Hollywood Smothers
RB · Average
73.4
C+
Defensive Impact · limited
Richard Wesley
EDGE · Average
72.5
C+
Pass Rush65.0
Run Disruption79.8
Tackling75.2
Ball Production65.0
Coverage: not individually graded
Performance · limited
Michael Terry III
RB · Average
72.2
C+
Performance · full
Derrek Cooper
RB · Average
71.2
C+
Defensive Impact · limited
Derek Williams Jr.
DB · Average
70.3
C+
Pass Rush—
Run Disruption66.6
Tackling70.1
Ball Production72.6
Coverage: not individually graded
Source: CFBD advanced box + live plays + BOA verified database + BOA pregame opponent unit ratings. BOA Game Grade version boa_game_performance_v6_weighted_units. Data quality: full. No synthetic or placeholder values are used.