BOA
Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#93 Oregon Stateat#101 Colorado State

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#93 Oregon State
BOA rating 1428.3
Win probability
46.8%
Projected
27
#101 Colorado State
BOA rating 1395.7
BOA Pick
Win probability
53.2%
Projected
28
BOA Pick
Colorado State
Pick Confidence
53.2%
Toss-Up
Projected Margin
Colorado State by 1.5
BOA Spread
Colorado State -1.5
Rating Edge
Oregon State +32.6

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Oregon State
Oregon State
1428.3
Colorado State
1395.7
Oregon State holds a 32.6-point rating edge.
Oregon State offense
Oregon State
Oregon State offense
41.8
Colorado State defense
15.3
Oregon State holds a 26.5-point rating edge.
Colorado State offense
Colorado State
Oregon State defense
49.9
Colorado State offense
67.7
Colorado State holds a 17.9-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Colorado State
Oregon State
45.3
Colorado State
47.4
Colorado State holds a 2.2-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Oregon State holds a 32.6-point rating edge.
2
Oregon State offense
Oregon State holds a 26.5-point rating edge.
3
Colorado State offense
Colorado State holds a 17.9-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 10:00 PM
SiteColorado State home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Oregon State
Last 3 completed
1–2
WWeek 4 · UTEP
33–7
LWeek 2 · Texas Tech
24–35
LWeek 1 · Houston
20–33
Colorado State
Last 3 completed
1–2
LWeek 4 · UTSA
45–59
LWeek 3 · BYU
23–41
WWeek 1 · Wyoming
35–13

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricOregon StateColorado State
National Rank#93#101
BOA Rating1428.31395.7
Offensive Rating41.867.7
Defensive Rating49.915.3
Schedule Strength45.347.4
Win Probability46.8%53.2%
Projected Points2728

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total55.0
Rating EdgeOregon State +32.6
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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