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Predictions
Win probability, projected score, BOA spread, rating edge, schedule-strength context, and matchup intelligence from the current approved BOA forecast.
National weekly forecast · 2026 Week 5 · recalculated after Week 4 rankings
National Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 28, 2026, 7:09 PM
Forecast Board
Week 5FINAL
#106 Western Kentucky@
#133 New Mexico StateThu, Oct 1 · 7:00 PM CT · Final Western Kentucky 13 · New Mexico State 34 · kickoff rank snapshot unavailable
Texas L
Final result
Final
Western Kentucky 13 · New Mexico State 34
Texas Pregame Win
63.0%
Rank Context
Unavailable
58.2% North Texas
58.2% · Lean
Spread
North Texas -4.0
Rating Edge
North Texas +112.5
SOS
41.6 / 32.8
53.5% Delaware
53.5% · Toss-Up
Spread
Delaware -1.7
Rating Edge
Liberty +30.7
SOS
0.0 / 14.6
54.5% Pittsburgh
54.5% · Toss-Up
Spread
Pittsburgh -2.1
Rating Edge
Pittsburgh +86.2
SOS
48.2 / 54.7
52.3% Northwestern
52.3% · Toss-Up
Spread
Northwestern -1.1
Rating Edge
Penn State +38.9
SOS
57.7 / 83.9
67.7% Alabama
67.7% · Strong
Spread
Alabama -8.9
Rating Edge
Alabama +183.9
SOS
89.8 / 95.6
84.7% SMU
84.7% · Very High
Spread
SMU -20.5
Rating Edge
SMU +241.9
SOS
70.8 / 51.1
53.7% Minnesota
53.7% · Toss-Up
Spread
Minnesota -1.8
Rating Edge
Michigan +29.2
SOS
84.7 / 83.2
86.2% Kansas
86.2% · Very High
Spread
Kansas -21.9
Rating Edge
Kansas +262.6
SOS
8.0 / 65.7
53.6% Navy
53.6% · Toss-Up
Spread
Navy -1.7
Rating Edge
Navy +80.2
SOS
40.1 / 15.3
84.6% Notre Dame
84.6% · Very High
Spread
Notre Dame -20.4
Rating Edge
Notre Dame +351.5
SOS
54.0 / 80.3
74.3% Wake Forest
74.3% · Strong
Spread
Wake Forest -12.7
Rating Edge
Wake Forest +129.7
SOS
76.6 / 56.9
63.5% UConn
63.5% · Lean
Spread
UConn -6.6
Rating Edge
UConn +40.8
SOS
63.5 / 24.8
69.1% Houston
69.1% · Strong
Spread
Houston -9.7
Rating Edge
Houston +84.9
SOS
64.2 / 61.3
70.6% Iowa State
70.6% · Strong
Spread
Iowa State -10.5
Rating Edge
Iowa State +96.9
SOS
70.1 / 73.7
73.1% Wisconsin
73.1% · Strong
Spread
Wisconsin -12.0
Rating Edge
Wisconsin +118.6
SOS
81.8 / 66.4
83.9% Georgia
83.9% · Very High
Spread
Georgia -19.8
Rating Edge
Georgia +232.0
SOS
92.7 / 86.1
65.1% Western Michigan
65.1% · Strong
Spread
Western Michigan -7.5
Rating Edge
Western Michigan +163.5
SOS
16.1 / 10.2
78.0% Toledo
78.0% · Strong
Spread
Toledo -15.2
Rating Edge
Toledo +274.9
SOS
2.9 / 24.1
59.9% Central Michigan
59.9% · Lean
Spread
Central Michigan -4.8
Rating Edge
Central Michigan +14.9
SOS
22.6 / 16.8
73.8% Tennessee
73.8% · Strong
Spread
Tennessee -12.4
Rating Edge
Tennessee +124.7
SOS
100.0 / 87.6
71.0% Miami (OH)
71.0% · Strong
Spread
Miami (OH) -10.7
Rating Edge
Miami (OH) +100.3
SOS
19.0 / 17.5
66.1% UNLV
66.1% · Strong
Spread
UNLV -8.0
Rating Edge
UNLV +60.8
SOS
62.0 / 10.9
58.3% Massachusetts
58.3% · Lean
Spread
Massachusetts -4.0
Rating Edge
Massachusetts +3.5
SOS
21.2 / 2.2
51.1% Florida
51.1% · Toss-Up
Spread
Florida -0.5
Rating Edge
Florida +63.0
SOS
91.2 / 96.4
51.3% NC State
51.3% · Toss-Up
Spread
NC State -0.6
Rating Edge
Louisville +45.7
SOS
59.1 / 53.3
79.7% Memphis
79.7% · Strong
Spread
Memphis -16.4
Rating Edge
Memphis +292.8
SOS
38.0 / 44.5
69.8% Ohio
69.8% · Strong
Spread
Ohio -10.0
Rating Edge
Ohio +200.1
SOS
5.8 / 26.3
62.1% Ohio State
62.1% · Lean
Spread
Ohio State -5.9
Rating Edge
Ohio State +141.1
SOS
82.5 / 77.4
51.0% Georgia State
51.0% · Toss-Up
Spread
Georgia State -0.5
Rating Edge
Old Dominion +47.9
SOS
34.3 / 28.5
59.5% Virginia
59.5% · Lean
Spread
Virginia -4.6
Rating Edge
Virginia +121.5
SOS
48.9 / 86.9
65.1% North Dakota State
65.1% · Strong
Spread
North Dakota State -7.5
Rating Edge
North Dakota State +53.4
SOS
9.5 / 1.5
77.5% James Madison
77.5% · Strong
Spread
James Madison -14.8
Rating Edge
James Madison +159.5
SOS
19.7 / 20.4
82.2% Nebraska
82.2% · Very High
Spread
Nebraska -18.4
Rating Edge
Nebraska +211.0
SOS
79.6 / 78.1
92.8% New Mexico
92.8% · Elite Confidence
Spread
New Mexico -30.6
Rating Edge
New Mexico +388.3
SOS
31.4 / 8.8
56.4% South Carolina
56.4% · Lean
Spread
South Carolina -3.1
Rating Edge
Kentucky +10.0
SOS
97.8 / 93.4
82.1% Illinois
82.1% · Very High
Spread
Illinois -18.3
Rating Edge
Illinois +209.7
SOS
94.2 / 81.0
53.2% Colorado State
53.2% · Toss-Up
Spread
Colorado State -1.5
Rating Edge
Oregon State +32.6
SOS
45.3 / 47.4
74.2% Texas A&M
74.2% · Strong
Spread
Texas A&M -12.7
Rating Edge
Texas A&M +128.6
SOS
99.3 / 94.9
64.9% BYU
64.9% · Lean
Spread
BYU -7.4
Rating Edge
BYU +161.9
SOS
75.9 / 75.2
Week 5
#107 Georgia Southern@
#123 Coastal CarolinaSat, Oct 3 · 6:00 PM CT · BOA Pick: Georgia Southern
51.5% Georgia Southern
51.5% · Toss-Up
Spread
Georgia Southern -0.7
Rating Edge
Georgia Southern +65.5
SOS
40.9 / 32.1
80.7% South Alabama
80.7% · Very High
Spread
South Alabama -17.2
Rating Edge
South Alabama +194.0
SOS
33.6 / 29.9
67.8% UTSA
67.8% · Strong
Spread
UTSA -8.9
Rating Edge
UTSA +184.7
SOS
43.8 / 46.7
58.4% Army
58.4% · Lean
Spread
Army -4.1
Rating Edge
Army +114.3
SOS
30.7 / 37.2
67.6% Miami
67.6% · Strong
Spread
Miami -8.8
Rating Edge
Miami +182.9
SOS
55.5 / 59.9
76.4% South Florida
76.4% · Strong
Spread
South Florida -14.1
Rating Edge
South Florida +149.3
SOS
43.1 / 27.0
72.6% Texas Tech
72.6% · Strong
Spread
Texas Tech -11.7
Rating Edge
Texas Tech +224.4
SOS
56.2 / 78.8
80.2% Boise State
80.2% · Very High
Spread
Boise State -16.8
Rating Edge
Boise State +188.3
SOS
49.6 / 46.0
63.4% USC
63.4% · Lean
Spread
USC -6.6
Rating Edge
USC +40.6
SOS
85.4 / 88.3
71.0% Louisiana
71.0% · Strong
Spread
Louisiana -10.7
Rating Edge
Louisiana +100.4
SOS
18.2 / 12.4
85.5% Indiana
85.5% · Very High
Spread
Indiana -21.2
Rating Edge
Indiana +363.0
SOS
74.5 / 67.9
57.0% Washington State
57.0% · Lean
Spread
Washington State -3.4
Rating Edge
Fresno State +6.2
SOS
35.8 / 52.6
61.2% Arizona State
61.2% · Lean
Spread
Arizona State -5.5
Rating Edge
Arizona State +24.1
SOS
68.6 / 71.5
54.2% San Diego State
54.2% · Toss-Up
Spread
San Diego State -2.0
Rating Edge
Texas State +25.8
SOS
51.8 / 50.4
65.0% Arizona
65.0% · Lean
Spread
Arizona -7.4
Rating Edge
Arizona +52.4
SOS
73.0 / 69.3
58.8% Hawai'i
58.8% · Lean
Spread
Hawai'i -4.3
Rating Edge
Hawai'i +6.6
SOS
7.3 / 4.4
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