BOA
Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#82 Utah Stateat#31 Boise State

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#82 Utah State
BOA rating 1471.6
Win probability
19.8%
Projected
17
#31 Boise State
BOA rating 1660.0
BOA Pick
Win probability
80.2%
Projected
34
BOA Pick
Boise State
Pick Confidence
80.2%
Very High
Projected Margin
Boise State by 16.8
BOA Spread
Boise State -16.8
Rating Edge
Boise State +188.3

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Boise State
Utah State
1471.6
Boise State
1660.0
Boise State holds a 188.3-point rating edge.
Utah State offense
Boise State
Utah State offense
20.7
Boise State defense
74.9
Boise State holds a 54.2-point rating edge.
Boise State offense
Boise State
Utah State defense
64.0
Boise State offense
80.2
Boise State holds a 16.2-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Utah State
Utah State
49.6
Boise State
46.0
Utah State holds a 3.6-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Boise State holds a 188.3-point rating edge.
2
Utah State offense
Boise State holds a 54.2-point rating edge.
3
Boise State offense
Boise State holds a 16.2-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 11:30 PM
SiteBoise State home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Utah State
Last 3 completed
1–2
WWeek 4 · Troy
21–10
LWeek 3 · Utah
0–33
LWeek 2 · Washington
14–16
Boise State
Last 3 completed
2–1
WWeek 4 · Western Michigan
32–7
WWeek 2 · Memphis
38–20
LWeek 1 · Oregon
27–34

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricUtah StateBoise State
National Rank#82#31
BOA Rating1471.61660.0
Offensive Rating20.780.2
Defensive Rating64.074.9
Schedule Strength49.646.0
Win Probability19.8%80.2%
Projected Points1734

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total51.0
Rating EdgeBoise State +188.3
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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