Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#7 Indianaat#90 Rutgers

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#7 Indiana
BOA rating 1840.1
BOA Pick
Win probability
85.5%
Projected
35
#90 Rutgers
BOA rating 1477.1
Win probability
14.5%
Projected
14
BOA Pick
Indiana
Pick Confidence
85.5%
Very High
Projected Margin
Indiana by 21.2
BOA Spread
Indiana -21.2
Rating Edge
Indiana +363.0

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Indiana
Indiana
1840.1
Rutgers
1477.1
Indiana holds a 363.0-point rating edge.
Indiana offense
Indiana
Indiana offense
93.3
Rutgers defense
21.8
Indiana holds a 71.5-point rating edge.
Rutgers offense
Indiana
Indiana defense
96.3
Rutgers offense
49.3
Indiana holds a 47.0-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Indiana
Indiana
74.5
Rutgers
67.9
Indiana holds a 6.6-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Indiana holds a 363.0-point rating edge.
2
Indiana offense
Indiana holds a 71.5-point rating edge.
3
Rutgers offense
Indiana holds a 47.0-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 4, 2026, 12:00 AM
SiteRutgers home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Indiana
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 4 · Northwestern
29–23
WWeek 3 · Western Kentucky
38–0
WWeek 1 · North Texas
52–16
Rutgers
Last 3 completed
0–3
LWeek 3 · USC
35–42
LWeek 2 · Boston College
21–28
LWeek 1 · Massachusetts
21–37

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricIndianaRutgers
National Rank#7#90
BOA Rating1840.11477.1
Offensive Rating93.349.3
Defensive Rating96.321.8
Schedule Strength74.567.9
Win Probability85.5%14.5%
Projected Points3514

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total49.0
Rating EdgeIndiana +363.0
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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