BOA
Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#59 Fresno Stateat#67 Washington State

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#59 Fresno State
BOA rating 1510.5
Win probability
43.0%
Projected
27
#67 Washington State
BOA rating 1504.3
BOA Pick
Win probability
57.0%
Projected
30
BOA Pick
Washington State
Pick Confidence
57.0%
Lean
Projected Margin
Washington State by 3.4
BOA Spread
Washington State -3.4
Rating Edge
Fresno State +6.2

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Fresno State
Fresno State
1510.5
Washington State
1504.3
Fresno State holds a 6.2-point rating edge.
Fresno State offense
Washington State
Fresno State offense
45.9
Washington State defense
51.0
Washington State holds a 5.1-point rating edge.
Washington State offense
Fresno State
Fresno State defense
70.2
Washington State offense
26.7
Fresno State holds a 43.4-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Washington State
Fresno State
35.8
Washington State
52.6
Washington State holds a 16.8-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Washington State offense
Fresno State holds a 43.4-point rating edge.
2
Schedule strength
Washington State holds a 16.8-point rating edge.
3
Overall power
Fresno State holds a 6.2-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 4, 2026, 1:30 AM
SiteWashington State home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Fresno State
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 4 · Rice
38–24
WWeek 3 · San José State
26–10
WWeek 2 · Sacramento State
49–3
Washington State
Last 3 completed
0–3
LWeek 4 · Arizona
24–34
LWeek 2 · Kansas State
7–34
LWeek 1 · Washington
10–24

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricFresno StateWashington State
National Rank#59#67
BOA Rating1510.51504.3
Offensive Rating45.926.7
Defensive Rating70.251.0
Schedule Strength35.852.6
Win Probability43.0%57.0%
Projected Points2730

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total57.0
Rating EdgeFresno State +6.2
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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