BOA
Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#81 Texas Stateat#98 San Diego State

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#81 Texas State
BOA rating 1456.5
Win probability
45.8%
Projected
28
#98 San Diego State
BOA rating 1430.7
BOA Pick
Win probability
54.2%
Projected
30
BOA Pick
San Diego State
Pick Confidence
54.2%
Toss-Up
Projected Margin
San Diego State by 2.0
BOA Spread
San Diego State -2.0
Rating Edge
Texas State +25.8

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Texas State
Texas State
1456.5
San Diego State
1430.7
Texas State holds a 25.8-point rating edge.
Texas State offense
Texas State
Texas State offense
60.3
San Diego State defense
36.0
Texas State holds a 24.3-point rating edge.
San Diego State offense
Texas State
Texas State defense
17.2
San Diego State offense
16.7
Texas State holds a 0.5-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Texas State
Texas State
51.8
San Diego State
50.4
Texas State holds a 1.5-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Texas State holds a 25.8-point rating edge.
2
Texas State offense
Texas State holds a 24.3-point rating edge.
3
Schedule strength
Texas State holds a 1.5-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 4, 2026, 2:30 AM
SiteSan Diego State home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Texas State
Last 3 completed
1–2
WWeek 3 · North Texas
49–35
LWeek 2 · UTSA
26–31
LWeek 1 · Texas
7–59
San Diego State
Last 3 completed
0–3
LWeek 4 · Toledo
16–41
LWeek 3 · James Madison
13–26
LWeek 2 · UCLA
10–28

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricTexas StateSan Diego State
National Rank#81#98
BOA Rating1456.51430.7
Offensive Rating60.316.7
Defensive Rating17.236.0
Schedule Strength51.850.4
Win Probability45.8%54.2%
Projected Points2830

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total58.0
Rating EdgeTexas State +25.8
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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