Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#110 San José Stateat#114 Hawai'i

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#110 San José State
BOA rating 1367.5
Win probability
41.2%
Projected
23
#114 Hawai'i
BOA rating 1374.1
BOA Pick
Win probability
58.8%
Projected
27
BOA Pick
Hawai'i
Pick Confidence
58.8%
Lean
Projected Margin
Hawai'i by 4.3
BOA Spread
Hawai'i -4.3
Rating Edge
Hawai'i +6.6

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Hawai'i
San José State
1367.5
Hawai'i
1374.1
Hawai'i holds a 6.6-point rating edge.
San José State offense
Hawai'i
San José State offense
33.3
Hawai'i defense
41.3
Hawai'i holds a 8.0-point rating edge.
Hawai'i offense
San José State
San José State defense
33.5
Hawai'i offense
19.0
San José State holds a 14.5-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
San José State
San José State
7.3
Hawai'i
4.4
San José State holds a 2.9-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Hawai'i offense
San José State holds a 14.5-point rating edge.
2
San José State offense
Hawai'i holds a 8.0-point rating edge.
3
Overall power
Hawai'i holds a 6.6-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 4, 2026, 3:59 AM
SiteHawai'i home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

San José State
Last 3 completed
1–2
LWeek 3 · Fresno State
10–26
WWeek 1 · Eastern Michigan
27–21
LWeek 0 · USC
26–42
Hawai'i
Last 3 completed
1–2
LWeek 4 · Wyoming
10–27
WWeek 2 · New Mexico State
29–19
LWeek 1 · UNLV
6–21

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricSan José StateHawai'i
National Rank#110#114
BOA Rating1367.51374.1
Offensive Rating33.319.0
Defensive Rating33.541.3
Schedule Strength7.34.4
Win Probability41.2%58.8%
Projected Points2327

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total50.0
Rating EdgeHawai'i +6.6
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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