Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#106 Western Kentuckyat#133 New Mexico State

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#106 Western Kentucky
BOA rating 1385.2
BOA Pick
Win probability
63.0%
Projected
27
#133 New Mexico State
BOA rating 1237.4
Win probability
37.0%
Projected
20
BOA Pick
Western Kentucky
Pick Confidence
63.0%
Lean
Projected Margin
Western Kentucky by 6.4
BOA Spread
Western Kentucky -6.4
Rating Edge
Western Kentucky +147.8

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky
1385.2
New Mexico State
1237.4
Western Kentucky holds a 147.8-point rating edge.
Western Kentucky offense
Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky offense
17.1
New Mexico State defense
14.5
Western Kentucky holds a 2.6-point rating edge.
New Mexico State offense
New Mexico State
Western Kentucky defense
10.2
New Mexico State offense
16.2
New Mexico State holds a 5.9-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky
27.7
New Mexico State
6.6
Western Kentucky holds a 21.2-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Western Kentucky holds a 147.8-point rating edge.
2
Schedule strength
Western Kentucky holds a 21.2-point rating edge.
3
New Mexico State offense
New Mexico State holds a 5.9-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 2, 2026, 12:00 AM
SiteNew Mexico State home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Western Kentucky
Last 3 completed
0–3
LWeek 3 · Indiana
0–38
LWeek 2 · Georgia
20–70
LWeek 1 · Nevada
14–49
New Mexico State
Last 3 completed
0–3
LWeek 4 · New Mexico
18–42
LWeek 2 · Hawai'i
19–29
LWeek 0 · Florida State
17–34

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricWestern KentuckyNew Mexico State
National Rank#106#133
BOA Rating1385.21237.4
Offensive Rating17.116.2
Defensive Rating10.214.5
Schedule Strength27.76.6
Win Probability63.0%37.0%
Projected Points2720

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total47.0
Rating EdgeWestern Kentucky +147.8
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

Final Result + Model Audit

Western Kentucky 13 · New Mexico State 34

View permanent BOA model record →
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