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Predictions

BOA Matchup Center

#70 North Texasat#109 Tulsa

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4

Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release

Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM

#70 North Texas

BOA rating 1490.2

BOA Pick

Win probability

58.2%

Projected

#109 Tulsa

BOA rating 1377.7

Win probability

41.8%

Projected

BOA Pick

North Texas

Pick Confidence

58.2%

Lean

Projected Margin

North Texas by 4.0

BOA Spread

North Texas -4.0

Rating Edge

North Texas +112.5

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power

North Texas

1490.2

Tulsa

1377.7

North Texas holds a 112.5-point rating edge.

North Texas offense

North Texas

North Texas offense

79.8

Tulsa defense

51.5

North Texas holds a 28.2-point rating edge.

Tulsa offense

North Texas

North Texas defense

25.9

Tulsa offense

12.9

North Texas holds a 13.0-point rating edge.

Schedule strength

North Texas

41.6

Tulsa

32.8

North Texas holds a 8.8-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

Overall power

North Texas holds a 112.5-point rating edge.

North Texas offense

North Texas holds a 28.2-point rating edge.

Tulsa offense

North Texas holds a 13.0-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 2, 2026, 1:00 AM

SiteTulsa home game

Week5

Forecast throughWeek 4

Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

North Texas

Last 3 completed

1–2

LWeek 3 · Texas State

35–49

WWeek 2 · UNLV

44–6

LWeek 1 · Indiana

16–52

Tulsa

Last 3 completed

2–1

LWeek 4 · Arkansas

6–34

WWeek 2 · Sam Houston

23–17

WWeek 1 · Oklahoma State

24–10

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricNorth TexasTulsa

National Rank#70#109

BOA Rating1490.21377.7

Offensive Rating79.812.9

Defensive Rating25.951.5

Schedule Strength41.632.8

Win Probability58.2%41.8%

Projected Points2723

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total50.0

Rating EdgeNorth Texas +112.5

As-of Week4

Forecast StatusCurrent

Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1

Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4

Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4

Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7

Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged

Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM

Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM

Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

Final Result + Model Audit

North Texas 45 · Tulsa 44

View permanent BOA model record →

#70 North Texasat#109 Tulsa

How the matchup tilts

Matchup pressure points

Game context

Recent form

Matchup Comparison

Forecast Snapshot

Model Lineage

Final Result + Model Audit

Get BOA’s Texas prediction before kickoff.