Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#99 Libertyat#111 Delaware

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#99 Liberty
BOA rating 1406.1
Win probability
46.5%
Projected
23
#111 Delaware
BOA rating 1375.4
BOA Pick
Win probability
53.5%
Projected
24
BOA Pick
Delaware
Pick Confidence
53.5%
Toss-Up
Projected Margin
Delaware by 1.7
BOA Spread
Delaware -1.7
Rating Edge
Liberty +30.7

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Liberty
Liberty
1406.1
Delaware
1375.4
Liberty holds a 30.7-point rating edge.
Liberty offense
Liberty
Liberty offense
59.0
Delaware defense
32.1
Liberty holds a 27.0-point rating edge.
Delaware offense
Liberty
Liberty defense
65.6
Delaware offense
20.7
Liberty holds a 44.9-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Delaware
Liberty
0.0
Delaware
14.6
Delaware holds a 14.6-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Delaware offense
Liberty holds a 44.9-point rating edge.
2
Overall power
Liberty holds a 30.7-point rating edge.
3
Liberty offense
Liberty holds a 27.0-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 2, 2026, 11:00 PM
SiteDelaware home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Liberty
Last 3 completed
2–1
WWeek 4 · Coastal Carolina
34–17
WWeek 3 · Ball State
51–15
LWeek 1 · James Madison
13–20
Delaware
Last 3 completed
1–2
LWeek 4 · Virginia
3–42
WWeek 3 · Coastal Carolina
22–14
LWeek 2 · Vanderbilt
26–35

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricLibertyDelaware
National Rank#99#111
BOA Rating1406.11375.4
Offensive Rating59.020.7
Defensive Rating65.632.1
Schedule Strength0.014.6
Win Probability46.5%53.5%
Projected Points2324

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total47.0
Rating EdgeLiberty +30.7
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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