BOA
Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#21 Penn Stateat#34 Northwestern

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#21 Penn State
BOA rating 1684.6
Win probability
47.7%
Projected
27
#34 Northwestern
BOA rating 1645.7
BOA Pick
Win probability
52.3%
Projected
28
BOA Pick
Northwestern
Pick Confidence
52.3%
Toss-Up
Projected Margin
Northwestern by 1.1
BOA Spread
Northwestern -1.1
Rating Edge
Penn State +38.9

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Penn State
Penn State
1684.6
Northwestern
1645.7
Penn State holds a 38.9-point rating edge.
Penn State offense
Penn State
Penn State offense
86.9
Northwestern defense
83.5
Penn State holds a 3.5-point rating edge.
Northwestern offense
Penn State
Penn State defense
92.8
Northwestern offense
69.2
Penn State holds a 23.6-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Northwestern
Penn State
57.7
Northwestern
83.9
Northwestern holds a 26.3-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Penn State holds a 38.9-point rating edge.
2
Schedule strength
Northwestern holds a 26.3-point rating edge.
3
Northwestern offense
Penn State holds a 23.6-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 12:00 AM
SiteNorthwestern home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Penn State
Last 3 completed
2–1
LWeek 4 · Wisconsin
20–24
WWeek 3 · Buffalo
55–13
WWeek 2 · Temple
27–9
Northwestern
Last 2 completed
1–1
LWeek 4 · Indiana
23–29
WWeek 3 · Colorado
41–7

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricPenn StateNorthwestern
National Rank#21#34
BOA Rating1684.61645.7
Offensive Rating86.969.2
Defensive Rating92.883.5
Schedule Strength57.783.9
Win Probability47.7%52.3%
Projected Points2728

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total55.0
Rating EdgePenn State +38.9
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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