BOA
Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#107 Georgia Southernat#123 Coastal Carolina

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#107 Georgia Southern
BOA rating 1402.3
BOA Pick
Win probability
51.5%
Projected
28
#123 Coastal Carolina
BOA rating 1336.8
Win probability
48.5%
Projected
27
BOA Pick
Georgia Southern
Pick Confidence
51.5%
Toss-Up
Projected Margin
Georgia Southern by 0.7
BOA Spread
Georgia Southern -0.7
Rating Edge
Georgia Southern +65.5

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern
1402.3
Coastal Carolina
1336.8
Georgia Southern holds a 65.5-point rating edge.
Georgia Southern offense
Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern offense
39.7
Coastal Carolina defense
26.7
Georgia Southern holds a 13.0-point rating edge.
Coastal Carolina offense
Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern defense
27.3
Coastal Carolina offense
18.5
Georgia Southern holds a 8.8-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern
40.9
Coastal Carolina
32.1
Georgia Southern holds a 8.8-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Georgia Southern holds a 65.5-point rating edge.
2
Georgia Southern offense
Georgia Southern holds a 13.0-point rating edge.
3
Coastal Carolina offense
Georgia Southern holds a 8.8-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 11:00 PM
SiteCoastal Carolina home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Georgia Southern
Last 3 completed
0–3
LWeek 4 · Houston
28–42
LWeek 3 · Jacksonville State
27–31
LWeek 2 · Clemson
7–22
Coastal Carolina
Last 3 completed
0–3
LWeek 4 · Liberty
17–34
LWeek 3 · Delaware
14–22
LWeek 1 · West Virginia
24–31

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricGeorgia SouthernCoastal Carolina
National Rank#107#123
BOA Rating1402.31336.8
Offensive Rating39.718.5
Defensive Rating27.326.7
Schedule Strength40.932.1
Win Probability51.5%48.5%
Projected Points2827

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total55.0
Rating EdgeGeorgia Southern +65.5
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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