Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#11 Texas Techat#61 Colorado

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#11 Texas Tech
BOA rating 1758.6
BOA Pick
Win probability
72.6%
Projected
33
#61 Colorado
BOA rating 1534.2
Win probability
27.4%
Projected
21
BOA Pick
Texas Tech
Pick Confidence
72.6%
Strong
Projected Margin
Texas Tech by 11.7
BOA Spread
Texas Tech -11.7
Rating Edge
Texas Tech +224.4

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Texas Tech
Texas Tech
1758.6
Colorado
1534.2
Texas Tech holds a 224.4-point rating edge.
Texas Tech offense
Texas Tech
Texas Tech offense
89.5
Colorado defense
55.2
Texas Tech holds a 34.3-point rating edge.
Colorado offense
Texas Tech
Texas Tech defense
66.5
Colorado offense
17.6
Texas Tech holds a 48.9-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Colorado
Texas Tech
56.2
Colorado
78.8
Colorado holds a 22.6-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Texas Tech holds a 224.4-point rating edge.
2
Colorado offense
Texas Tech holds a 48.9-point rating edge.
3
Texas Tech offense
Texas Tech holds a 34.3-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 11:30 PM
SiteColorado home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Texas Tech
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 4 · Sam Houston
49–14
WWeek 3 · Houston
28–26
WWeek 2 · Oregon State
35–24
Colorado
Last 3 completed
1–2
LWeek 4 · Baylor
13–23
LWeek 3 · Northwestern
7–41
WWeek 1 · Georgia Tech
14–13

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricTexas TechColorado
National Rank#11#61
BOA Rating1758.61534.2
Offensive Rating89.517.6
Defensive Rating66.555.2
Schedule Strength56.278.8
Win Probability72.6%27.4%
Projected Points3321

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total54.0
Rating EdgeTexas Tech +224.4
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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