BOA
Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#42 Louisvilleat#50 NC State

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#42 Louisville
BOA rating 1614.9
Win probability
48.7%
Projected
27
#50 NC State
BOA rating 1569.2
BOA Pick
Win probability
51.3%
Projected
28
BOA Pick
NC State
Pick Confidence
51.3%
Toss-Up
Projected Margin
NC State by 0.6
BOA Spread
NC State -0.6
Rating Edge
Louisville +45.7

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Louisville
Louisville
1614.9
NC State
1569.2
Louisville holds a 45.7-point rating edge.
Louisville offense
Louisville
Louisville offense
87.8
NC State defense
31.4
Louisville holds a 56.4-point rating edge.
NC State offense
NC State
Louisville defense
40.5
NC State offense
54.6
NC State holds a 14.1-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Louisville
Louisville
59.1
NC State
53.3
Louisville holds a 5.8-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Louisville offense
Louisville holds a 56.4-point rating edge.
2
Overall power
Louisville holds a 45.7-point rating edge.
3
NC State offense
NC State holds a 14.1-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM
SiteNC State home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Louisville
Last 3 completed
1–2
LWeek 4 · Wake Forest
27–30
WWeek 3 · SMU
41–31
LWeek 1 · Ole Miss
38–41
NC State
Last 3 completed
1–2
WWeek 4 · App State
41–31
LWeek 3 · Vanderbilt
31–35
LWeek 0 · Virginia
8–34

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricLouisvilleNC State
National Rank#42#50
BOA Rating1614.91569.2
Offensive Rating87.854.6
Defensive Rating40.531.4
Schedule Strength59.153.3
Win Probability48.7%51.3%
Projected Points2728

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total55.0
Rating EdgeLouisville +45.7
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

BOA Weekly

Get BOA’s Texas prediction before kickoff.

Win probability, projected spread and the week’s most useful Texas data.

Join free