Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#66 Armyat#103 Louisiana Tech

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#66 Army
BOA rating 1503.7
BOA Pick
Win probability
58.4%
Projected
31
#103 Louisiana Tech
BOA rating 1389.4
Win probability
41.6%
Projected
27
BOA Pick
Army
Pick Confidence
58.4%
Lean
Projected Margin
Army by 4.1
BOA Spread
Army -4.1
Rating Edge
Army +114.3

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Army
Army
1503.7
Louisiana Tech
1389.4
Army holds a 114.3-point rating edge.
Army offense
Army
Army offense
27.0
Louisiana Tech defense
20.6
Army holds a 6.3-point rating edge.
Louisiana Tech offense
Army
Army defense
60.5
Louisiana Tech offense
23.6
Army holds a 36.9-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Louisiana Tech
Army
30.7
Louisiana Tech
37.2
Louisiana Tech holds a 6.6-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Army holds a 114.3-point rating edge.
2
Louisiana Tech offense
Army holds a 36.9-point rating edge.
3
Schedule strength
Louisiana Tech holds a 6.6-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 11:30 PM
SiteLouisiana Tech home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Army
Last 2 completed
1–1
WWeek 4 · Temple
21–17
LWeek 2 · South Florida
24–28
Louisiana Tech
Last 2 completed
0–2
LWeek 3 · Baylor
19–36
LWeek 2 · LSU
14–45

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricArmyLouisiana Tech
National Rank#66#103
BOA Rating1503.71389.4
Offensive Rating27.023.6
Defensive Rating60.520.6
Schedule Strength30.737.2
Win Probability58.4%41.6%
Projected Points3127

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total58.0
Rating EdgeArmy +114.3
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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