BOA
Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#108 Old Dominionat#112 Georgia State

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#108 Old Dominion
BOA rating 1415.1
Win probability
49.0%
Projected
23
#112 Georgia State
BOA rating 1367.3
BOA Pick
Win probability
51.0%
Projected
24
BOA Pick
Georgia State
Pick Confidence
51.0%
Toss-Up
Projected Margin
Georgia State by 0.5
BOA Spread
Georgia State -0.5
Rating Edge
Old Dominion +47.9

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Old Dominion
Old Dominion
1415.1
Georgia State
1367.3
Old Dominion holds a 47.9-point rating edge.
Old Dominion offense
Essentially even
Old Dominion offense
36.8
Georgia State defense
36.8
The active rating board sees almost no separation here.
Georgia State offense
Georgia State
Old Dominion defense
26.1
Georgia State offense
52.5
Georgia State holds a 26.5-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Old Dominion
Old Dominion
34.3
Georgia State
28.5
Old Dominion holds a 5.8-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Old Dominion holds a 47.9-point rating edge.
2
Georgia State offense
Georgia State holds a 26.5-point rating edge.
3
Schedule strength
Old Dominion holds a 5.8-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM
SiteGeorgia State home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Old Dominion
Last 3 completed
0–3
LWeek 4 · James Madison
20–46
LWeek 3 · East Carolina
17–20
LWeek 2 · Virginia Tech
21–44
Georgia State
Last 3 completed
2–1
WWeek 4 · Northern Illinois
35–14
LWeek 3 · UCF
30–44
WWeek 2 · Kennesaw State
31–17

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricOld DominionGeorgia State
National Rank#108#112
BOA Rating1415.11367.3
Offensive Rating36.852.5
Defensive Rating26.136.8
Schedule Strength34.328.5
Win Probability49.0%51.0%
Projected Points2324

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total47.0
Rating EdgeOld Dominion +47.9
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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