Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#43 Vanderbiltat#1 Georgia

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#43 Vanderbilt
BOA rating 1671.5
Win probability
16.1%
Projected
14
#1 Georgia
BOA rating 1903.5
BOA Pick
Win probability
83.9%
Projected
34
BOA Pick
Georgia
Pick Confidence
83.9%
Very High
Projected Margin
Georgia by 19.8
BOA Spread
Georgia -19.8
Rating Edge
Georgia +232.0

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Georgia
Vanderbilt
1671.5
Georgia
1903.5
Georgia holds a 232.0-point rating edge.
Vanderbilt offense
Georgia
Vanderbilt offense
64.0
Georgia defense
92.3
Georgia holds a 28.3-point rating edge.
Georgia offense
Georgia
Vanderbilt defense
55.4
Georgia offense
98.2
Georgia holds a 42.8-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt
92.7
Georgia
86.1
Vanderbilt holds a 6.6-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Georgia holds a 232.0-point rating edge.
2
Georgia offense
Georgia holds a 42.8-point rating edge.
3
Vanderbilt offense
Georgia holds a 28.3-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 4:45 PM
SiteGeorgia home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Vanderbilt
Last 3 completed
2–1
LWeek 4 · Auburn
15–21
WWeek 3 · NC State
35–31
WWeek 2 · Delaware
35–26
Georgia
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 4 · Oklahoma
41–13
WWeek 3 · Arkansas
45–17
WWeek 2 · Western Kentucky
70–20

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricVanderbiltGeorgia
National Rank#43#1
BOA Rating1671.51903.5
Offensive Rating64.098.2
Defensive Rating55.492.3
Schedule Strength92.786.1
Win Probability16.1%83.9%
Projected Points1434

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total48.0
Rating EdgeGeorgia +232.0
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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