Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#115 Templeat#58 South Florida

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#115 Temple
BOA rating 1366.4
Win probability
23.6%
Projected
20
#58 South Florida
BOA rating 1515.7
BOA Pick
Win probability
76.4%
Projected
34
BOA Pick
South Florida
Pick Confidence
76.4%
Strong
Projected Margin
South Florida by 14.1
BOA Spread
South Florida -14.1
Rating Edge
South Florida +149.3

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
South Florida
Temple
1366.4
South Florida
1515.7
South Florida holds a 149.3-point rating edge.
Temple offense
South Florida
Temple offense
44.8
South Florida defense
74.5
South Florida holds a 29.7-point rating edge.
South Florida offense
South Florida
Temple defense
22.6
South Florida offense
39.7
South Florida holds a 17.0-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Temple
Temple
43.1
South Florida
27.0
Temple holds a 16.1-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
South Florida holds a 149.3-point rating edge.
2
Temple offense
South Florida holds a 29.7-point rating edge.
3
South Florida offense
South Florida holds a 17.0-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 11:30 PM
SiteSouth Florida home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Temple
Last 3 completed
0–3
LWeek 4 · Army
17–21
LWeek 3 · Toledo
48–49
LWeek 2 · Penn State
9–27
South Florida
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 4 · Bowling Green
14–6
WWeek 2 · Army
28–24
WWeek 1 · Florida International
19–9

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricTempleSouth Florida
National Rank#115#58
BOA Rating1366.41515.7
Offensive Rating44.839.7
Defensive Rating22.674.5
Schedule Strength43.127.0
Win Probability23.6%76.4%
Projected Points2034

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total54.0
Rating EdgeSouth Florida +149.3
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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