Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#28 Kentuckyat#51 South Carolina

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#28 Kentucky
BOA rating 1638.3
Win probability
43.6%
Projected
24
#51 South Carolina
BOA rating 1628.3
BOA Pick
Win probability
56.4%
Projected
27
BOA Pick
South Carolina
Pick Confidence
56.4%
Lean
Projected Margin
South Carolina by 3.1
BOA Spread
South Carolina -3.1
Rating Edge
Kentucky +10.0

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Kentucky
Kentucky
1638.3
South Carolina
1628.3
Kentucky holds a 10.0-point rating edge.
Kentucky offense
Kentucky
Kentucky offense
72.6
South Carolina defense
47.7
Kentucky holds a 24.8-point rating edge.
South Carolina offense
South Carolina
Kentucky defense
56.5
South Carolina offense
81.1
South Carolina holds a 24.6-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Kentucky
Kentucky
97.8
South Carolina
93.4
Kentucky holds a 4.4-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Kentucky offense
Kentucky holds a 24.8-point rating edge.
2
South Carolina offense
South Carolina holds a 24.6-point rating edge.
3
Overall power
Kentucky holds a 10.0-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 8:15 PM
SiteSouth Carolina home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Kentucky
Last 3 completed
2–1
WWeek 4 · South Alabama
45–21
WWeek 3 · Texas A&M
31–21
LWeek 2 · Alabama
17–45
South Carolina
Last 3 completed
1–2
LWeek 4 · Alabama
18–49
LWeek 3 · Mississippi State
34–41
WWeek 1 · Kent State
57–0

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricKentuckySouth Carolina
National Rank#28#51
BOA Rating1638.31628.3
Offensive Rating72.681.1
Defensive Rating56.547.7
Schedule Strength97.893.4
Win Probability43.6%56.4%
Projected Points2427

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total51.0
Rating EdgeKentucky +10.0
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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