Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#41 Auburnat#16 Tennessee

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#41 Auburn
BOA rating 1610.8
Win probability
26.2%
Projected
17
#16 Tennessee
BOA rating 1735.5
BOA Pick
Win probability
73.8%
Projected
30
BOA Pick
Tennessee
Pick Confidence
73.8%
Strong
Projected Margin
Tennessee by 12.4
BOA Spread
Tennessee -12.4
Rating Edge
Tennessee +124.7

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Tennessee
Auburn
1610.8
Tennessee
1735.5
Tennessee holds a 124.7-point rating edge.
Auburn offense
Tennessee
Auburn offense
61.7
Tennessee defense
84.5
Tennessee holds a 22.8-point rating edge.
Tennessee offense
Tennessee
Auburn defense
76.6
Tennessee offense
90.4
Tennessee holds a 13.8-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Auburn
Auburn
100.0
Tennessee
87.6
Auburn holds a 12.4-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Tennessee holds a 124.7-point rating edge.
2
Auburn offense
Tennessee holds a 22.8-point rating edge.
3
Tennessee offense
Tennessee holds a 13.8-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM
SiteTennessee home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Auburn
Last 3 completed
2–1
WWeek 4 · Vanderbilt
21–15
LWeek 3 · Florida
39–44
WWeek 2 · Southern Miss
43–8
Tennessee
Last 3 completed
2–1
LWeek 4 · Texas
17–20
WWeek 3 · Kennesaw State
42–9
WWeek 2 · Georgia Tech
45–24

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricAuburnTennessee
National Rank#41#16
BOA Rating1610.81735.5
Offensive Rating61.790.4
Defensive Rating76.684.5
Schedule Strength100.087.6
Win Probability26.2%73.8%
Projected Points1730

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total47.0
Rating EdgeTennessee +124.7
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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