Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#131 Middle Tennesseeat#60 Kansas

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#131 Middle Tennessee
BOA rating 1267.5
Win probability
13.8%
Projected
16
#60 Kansas
BOA rating 1530.2
BOA Pick
Win probability
86.2%
Projected
38
BOA Pick
Kansas
Pick Confidence
86.2%
Very High
Projected Margin
Kansas by 21.9
BOA Spread
Kansas -21.9
Rating Edge
Kansas +262.6

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Kansas
Middle Tennessee
1267.5
Kansas
1530.2
Kansas holds a 262.6-point rating edge.
Middle Tennessee offense
Kansas
Middle Tennessee offense
26.1
Kansas defense
45.7
Kansas holds a 19.6-point rating edge.
Kansas offense
Kansas
Middle Tennessee defense
43.6
Kansas offense
49.1
Kansas holds a 5.5-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Kansas
Middle Tennessee
8.0
Kansas
65.7
Kansas holds a 57.7-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Kansas holds a 262.6-point rating edge.
2
Schedule strength
Kansas holds a 57.7-point rating edge.
3
Middle Tennessee offense
Kansas holds a 19.6-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 4:00 PM
SiteKansas home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Middle Tennessee
Last 3 completed
1–2
LWeek 4 · Jacksonville State
13–23
WWeek 3 · Nevada
27–20
LWeek 2 · Marshall
26–28
Kansas
Last 2 completed
0–2
LWeek 3 · Arizona State
17–24
LWeek 2 · Missouri
21–38

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricMiddle TennesseeKansas
National Rank#131#60
BOA Rating1267.51530.2
Offensive Rating26.149.1
Defensive Rating43.645.7
Schedule Strength8.065.7
Win Probability13.8%86.2%
Projected Points1638

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total54.0
Rating EdgeKansas +262.6
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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