Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#62 Cincinnatiat#25 Arizona

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#62 Cincinnati
BOA rating 1614.9
Win probability
35.0%
Projected
24
#25 Arizona
BOA rating 1667.2
BOA Pick
Win probability
65.0%
Projected
31
BOA Pick
Arizona
Pick Confidence
65.0%
Lean
Projected Margin
Arizona by 7.4
BOA Spread
Arizona -7.4
Rating Edge
Arizona +52.4

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Arizona
Cincinnati
1614.9
Arizona
1667.2
Arizona holds a 52.4-point rating edge.
Cincinnati offense
Cincinnati
Cincinnati offense
71.5
Arizona defense
63.3
Cincinnati holds a 8.2-point rating edge.
Arizona offense
Arizona
Cincinnati defense
55.2
Arizona offense
72.6
Arizona holds a 17.4-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Cincinnati
Cincinnati
73.0
Arizona
69.3
Cincinnati holds a 3.6-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Arizona holds a 52.4-point rating edge.
2
Arizona offense
Arizona holds a 17.4-point rating edge.
3
Cincinnati offense
Cincinnati holds a 8.2-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 4, 2026, 3:00 AM
SiteArizona home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Cincinnati
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 4 · Kansas State
31–26
WWeek 3 · Miami (OH)
35–31
WWeek 1 · Boston College
34–15
Arizona
Last 3 completed
2–1
WWeek 4 · Washington State
34–24
WWeek 3 · Northern Illinois
42–17
LWeek 2 · BYU
17–28

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricCincinnatiArizona
National Rank#62#25
BOA Rating1614.91667.2
Offensive Rating71.572.6
Defensive Rating55.263.3
Schedule Strength73.069.3
Win Probability35.0%65.0%
Projected Points2431

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total55.0
Rating EdgeArizona +52.4
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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