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Predictions

BOA Matchup Center

#56 UTSAat#117 Rice

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4

Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release

Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM

#56 UTSA

BOA rating 1534.1

BOA Pick

Win probability

67.8%

Projected

#117 Rice

BOA rating 1349.4

Win probability

32.2%

Projected

BOA Pick

UTSA

Pick Confidence

67.8%

Strong

Projected Margin

UTSA by 8.9

BOA Spread

UTSA -8.9

Rating Edge

UTSA +184.7

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power

UTSA

1534.1

Rice

1349.4

UTSA holds a 184.7-point rating edge.

UTSA offense

UTSA

UTSA offense

69.3

Rice defense

11.5

UTSA holds a 57.8-point rating edge.

Rice offense

UTSA

UTSA defense

28.1

Rice offense

18.4

UTSA holds a 9.7-point rating edge.

Schedule strength

Rice

UTSA

43.8

Rice

46.7

Rice holds a 2.9-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

Overall power

UTSA holds a 184.7-point rating edge.

UTSA offense

UTSA holds a 57.8-point rating edge.

Rice offense

UTSA holds a 9.7-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 11:00 PM

SiteRice home game

Week5

Forecast throughWeek 4

Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

UTSA

Last 3 completed

2–1

WWeek 4 · Colorado State

59–45

LWeek 3 · Texas

6–30

WWeek 2 · Texas State

31–26

Rice

Last 3 completed

0–3

LWeek 4 · Fresno State

24–38

LWeek 3 · Western Michigan

21–28

LWeek 2 · Notre Dame

0–52

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricUTSARice

National Rank#56#117

BOA Rating1534.11349.4

Offensive Rating69.318.4

Defensive Rating28.111.5

Schedule Strength43.846.7

Win Probability67.8%32.2%

Projected Points3021

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total51.0

Rating EdgeUTSA +184.7

As-of Week4

Forecast StatusCurrent

Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1

Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4

Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4

Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7

Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged

Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM

Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM

Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

#56 UTSAat#117 Rice

How the matchup tilts

Matchup pressure points

Game context

Recent form

Matchup Comparison

Forecast Snapshot

Model Lineage

Get BOA’s Texas prediction before kickoff.