Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#55 Memphisat#134 Charlotte

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#55 Memphis
BOA rating 1542.0
BOA Pick
Win probability
79.7%
Projected
34
#134 Charlotte
BOA rating 1249.2
Win probability
20.3%
Projected
17
BOA Pick
Memphis
Pick Confidence
79.7%
Strong
Projected Margin
Memphis by 16.4
BOA Spread
Memphis -16.4
Rating Edge
Memphis +292.8

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Memphis
Memphis
1542.0
Charlotte
1249.2
Memphis holds a 292.8-point rating edge.
Memphis offense
Memphis
Memphis offense
63.1
Charlotte defense
18.4
Memphis holds a 44.7-point rating edge.
Charlotte offense
Memphis
Memphis defense
51.1
Charlotte offense
6.7
Memphis holds a 44.4-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Charlotte
Memphis
38.0
Charlotte
44.5
Charlotte holds a 6.6-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Memphis holds a 292.8-point rating edge.
2
Memphis offense
Memphis holds a 44.7-point rating edge.
3
Charlotte offense
Memphis holds a 44.4-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM
SiteCharlotte home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Memphis
Last 3 completed
2–1
LWeek 2 · Boise State
20–38
WWeek 1 · Arkansas State
42–24
WWeek 0 · UNLV
27–21
Charlotte
Last 3 completed
0–3
LWeek 4 · Louisiana
7–34
LWeek 3 · App State
21–26
LWeek 2 · Ole Miss
9–41

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricMemphisCharlotte
National Rank#55#134
BOA Rating1542.01249.2
Offensive Rating63.16.7
Defensive Rating51.118.4
Schedule Strength38.044.5
Win Probability79.7%20.3%
Projected Points3417

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total51.0
Rating EdgeMemphis +292.8
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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