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Predictions

BOA Matchup Center

#44 Washingtonat#18 USC

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4

Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release

Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM

#44 Washington

BOA rating 1683.3

Win probability

36.6%

Projected

#18 USC

BOA rating 1723.9

BOA Pick

Win probability

63.4%

Projected

BOA Pick

USC

Pick Confidence

63.4%

Lean

Projected Margin

USC by 6.6

BOA Spread

USC -6.6

Rating Edge

USC +40.6

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power

USC

Washington

1683.3

USC

1723.9

USC holds a 40.6-point rating edge.

Washington offense

USC

Washington offense

48.0

USC defense

56.9

USC holds a 8.9-point rating edge.

USC offense

USC

Washington defense

83.3

USC offense

93.1

USC holds a 9.8-point rating edge.

Schedule strength

USC

Washington

85.4

USC

88.3

USC holds a 2.9-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

Overall power

USC holds a 40.6-point rating edge.

USC offense

USC holds a 9.8-point rating edge.

Washington offense

USC holds a 8.9-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 11:30 PM

SiteUSC home game

Week5

Forecast throughWeek 4

Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Washington

Last 3 completed

2–1

LWeek 4 · Minnesota

24–27

WWeek 2 · Utah State

16–14

WWeek 1 · Washington State

24–10

USC

Last 3 completed

2–1

LWeek 4 · Oregon

27–41

WWeek 3 · Rutgers

42–35

WWeek 2 · Louisiana

49–30

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricWashingtonUSC

National Rank#44#18

BOA Rating1683.31723.9

Offensive Rating48.093.1

Defensive Rating83.356.9

Schedule Strength85.488.3

Win Probability36.6%63.4%

Projected Points2431

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total55.0

Rating EdgeUSC +40.6

As-of Week4

Forecast StatusCurrent

Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1

Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4

Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4

Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7

Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged

Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM

Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM

Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

#44 Washingtonat#18 USC

How the matchup tilts

Matchup pressure points

Game context

Recent form

Matchup Comparison

Forecast Snapshot

Model Lineage

Get BOA’s Texas prediction before kickoff.