Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#100 Marylandat#22 Nebraska

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#100 Maryland
BOA rating 1469.5
Win probability
17.8%
Projected
20
#22 Nebraska
BOA rating 1680.5
BOA Pick
Win probability
82.2%
Projected
38
BOA Pick
Nebraska
Pick Confidence
82.2%
Very High
Projected Margin
Nebraska by 18.4
BOA Spread
Nebraska -18.4
Rating Edge
Nebraska +211.0

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Nebraska
Maryland
1469.5
Nebraska
1680.5
Nebraska holds a 211.0-point rating edge.
Maryland offense
Nebraska
Maryland offense
40.4
Nebraska defense
83.4
Nebraska holds a 43.0-point rating edge.
Nebraska offense
Nebraska
Maryland defense
25.2
Nebraska offense
87.5
Nebraska holds a 62.3-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Maryland
Maryland
79.6
Nebraska
78.1
Maryland holds a 1.5-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Nebraska holds a 211.0-point rating edge.
2
Nebraska offense
Nebraska holds a 62.3-point rating edge.
3
Maryland offense
Nebraska holds a 43.0-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 8:00 PM
SiteNebraska home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Maryland
Last 3 completed
1–2
LWeek 4 · UCLA
3–54
LWeek 3 · Virginia Tech
26–35
WWeek 2 · UConn
38–14
Nebraska
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 4 · Michigan State
31–13
WWeek 2 · Bowling Green
56–7
WWeek 1 · Ohio
49–21

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricMarylandNebraska
National Rank#100#22
BOA Rating1469.51680.5
Offensive Rating40.487.5
Defensive Rating25.283.4
Schedule Strength79.678.1
Win Probability17.8%82.2%
Projected Points2038

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total58.0
Rating EdgeNebraska +211.0
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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