BOA
Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#3 Ohio Stateat#10 Iowa

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#3 Ohio State
BOA rating 1889.3
BOA Pick
Win probability
62.1%
Projected
27
#10 Iowa
BOA rating 1748.2
Win probability
37.9%
Projected
21
BOA Pick
Ohio State
Pick Confidence
62.1%
Lean
Projected Margin
Ohio State by 5.9
BOA Spread
Ohio State -5.9
Rating Edge
Ohio State +141.1

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Ohio State
Ohio State
1889.3
Iowa
1748.2
Ohio State holds a 141.1-point rating edge.
Ohio State offense
Iowa
Ohio State offense
96.5
Iowa defense
97.0
Iowa holds a 0.5-point rating edge.
Iowa offense
Ohio State
Ohio State defense
95.2
Iowa offense
57.9
Ohio State holds a 37.3-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Ohio State
Ohio State
82.5
Iowa
77.4
Ohio State holds a 5.1-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Ohio State holds a 141.1-point rating edge.
2
Iowa offense
Ohio State holds a 37.3-point rating edge.
3
Schedule strength
Ohio State holds a 5.1-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM
SiteIowa home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Ohio State
Last 3 completed
2–1
WWeek 4 · Illinois
42–19
WWeek 3 · Kent State
59–3
LWeek 2 · Texas
23–24
Iowa
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 4 · Michigan
20–19
WWeek 2 · Iowa State
16–13
WWeek 1 · Northern Illinois
40–0

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricOhio StateIowa
National Rank#3#10
BOA Rating1889.31748.2
Offensive Rating96.557.9
Defensive Rating95.297.0
Schedule Strength82.577.4
Win Probability62.1%37.9%
Projected Points2721

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total48.0
Rating EdgeOhio State +141.1
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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