Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#130 Bowling Greenat#97 Miami (OH)

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#130 Bowling Green
BOA rating 1301.1
Win probability
29.0%
Projected
21
#97 Miami (OH)
BOA rating 1401.3
BOA Pick
Win probability
71.0%
Projected
31
BOA Pick
Miami (OH)
Pick Confidence
71.0%
Strong
Projected Margin
Miami (OH) by 10.7
BOA Spread
Miami (OH) -10.7
Rating Edge
Miami (OH) +100.3

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Miami (OH)
Bowling Green
1301.1
Miami (OH)
1401.3
Miami (OH) holds a 100.3-point rating edge.
Bowling Green offense
Miami (OH)
Bowling Green offense
4.7
Miami (OH) defense
23.6
Miami (OH) holds a 18.8-point rating edge.
Miami (OH) offense
Miami (OH)
Bowling Green defense
12.3
Miami (OH) offense
38.4
Miami (OH) holds a 26.1-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Bowling Green
Bowling Green
19.0
Miami (OH)
17.5
Bowling Green holds a 1.5-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Miami (OH) holds a 100.3-point rating edge.
2
Miami (OH) offense
Miami (OH) holds a 26.1-point rating edge.
3
Bowling Green offense
Miami (OH) holds a 18.8-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM
SiteMiami (OH) home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Bowling Green
Last 3 completed
0–3
LWeek 4 · South Florida
6–14
LWeek 3 · Iowa State
7–55
LWeek 2 · Nebraska
7–56
Miami (OH)
Last 3 completed
1–2
WWeek 4 · UConn
24–21
LWeek 3 · Cincinnati
31–35
LWeek 1 · Pittsburgh
14–59

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricBowling GreenMiami (OH)
National Rank#130#97
BOA Rating1301.11401.3
Offensive Rating4.738.4
Defensive Rating12.323.6
Schedule Strength19.017.5
Win Probability29.0%71.0%
Projected Points2131

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total52.0
Rating EdgeMiami (OH) +100.3
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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