Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#125 Eastern Michiganat#126 Massachusetts

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#125 Eastern Michigan
BOA rating 1299.8
Win probability
41.7%
Projected
20
#126 Massachusetts
BOA rating 1303.3
BOA Pick
Win probability
58.3%
Projected
24
BOA Pick
Massachusetts
Pick Confidence
58.3%
Lean
Projected Margin
Massachusetts by 4.0
BOA Spread
Massachusetts -4.0
Rating Edge
Massachusetts +3.5

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Massachusetts
Eastern Michigan
1299.8
Massachusetts
1303.3
Massachusetts holds a 3.5-point rating edge.
Eastern Michigan offense
Massachusetts
Eastern Michigan offense
14.8
Massachusetts defense
61.7
Massachusetts holds a 46.9-point rating edge.
Massachusetts offense
Massachusetts
Eastern Michigan defense
15.9
Massachusetts offense
54.7
Massachusetts holds a 38.9-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Eastern Michigan
Eastern Michigan
21.2
Massachusetts
2.2
Eastern Michigan holds a 19.0-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Eastern Michigan offense
Massachusetts holds a 46.9-point rating edge.
2
Massachusetts offense
Massachusetts holds a 38.9-point rating edge.
3
Schedule strength
Eastern Michigan holds a 19.0-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM
SiteMassachusetts home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Eastern Michigan
Last 3 completed
0–3
LWeek 3 · Wisconsin
10–54
LWeek 2 · Michigan State
7–35
LWeek 1 · San José State
21–27
Massachusetts
Last 2 completed
2–0
WWeek 4 · Sacramento State
35–6
WWeek 1 · Rutgers
37–21

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricEastern MichiganMassachusetts
National Rank#125#126
BOA Rating1299.81303.3
Offensive Rating14.854.7
Defensive Rating15.961.7
Schedule Strength21.22.2
Win Probability41.7%58.3%
Projected Points2024

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total44.0
Rating EdgeMassachusetts +3.5
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

BOA Weekly

Get BOA’s Texas prediction before kickoff.

Win probability, projected spread and the week’s most useful Texas data.

Join free