BOA
Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#74 Ohioat#127 Kent State

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#74 Ohio
BOA rating 1477.5
BOA Pick
Win probability
69.8%
Projected
27
#127 Kent State
BOA rating 1277.3
Win probability
30.2%
Projected
17
BOA Pick
Ohio
Pick Confidence
69.8%
Strong
Projected Margin
Ohio by 10.0
BOA Spread
Ohio -10.0
Rating Edge
Ohio +200.1

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Ohio
Ohio
1477.5
Kent State
1277.3
Ohio holds a 200.1-point rating edge.
Ohio offense
Ohio
Ohio offense
52.7
Kent State defense
3.9
Ohio holds a 48.8-point rating edge.
Kent State offense
Ohio
Ohio defense
21.7
Kent State offense
4.4
Ohio holds a 17.3-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Kent State
Ohio
5.8
Kent State
26.3
Kent State holds a 20.4-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Ohio holds a 200.1-point rating edge.
2
Ohio offense
Ohio holds a 48.8-point rating edge.
3
Schedule strength
Kent State holds a 20.4-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM
SiteKent State home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Ohio
Last 3 completed
1–2
LWeek 3 · South Alabama
36–41
WWeek 2 · Jacksonville State
29–27
LWeek 1 · Nebraska
21–49
Kent State
Last 3 completed
1–2
WWeek 4 · Ball State
26–13
LWeek 3 · Ohio State
3–59
LWeek 1 · South Carolina
0–57

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricOhioKent State
National Rank#74#127
BOA Rating1477.51277.3
Offensive Rating52.74.4
Defensive Rating21.73.9
Schedule Strength5.826.3
Win Probability69.8%30.2%
Projected Points2717

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total44.0
Rating EdgeOhio +200.1
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

BOA Weekly

Get BOA’s Texas prediction before kickoff.

Win probability, projected spread and the week’s most useful Texas data.

Join free