BOA
Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#48 Virginiaat#63 Florida State

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#48 Virginia
BOA rating 1622.1
BOA Pick
Win probability
59.5%
Projected
31
#63 Florida State
BOA rating 1500.6
Win probability
40.5%
Projected
27
BOA Pick
Virginia
Pick Confidence
59.5%
Lean
Projected Margin
Virginia by 4.6
BOA Spread
Virginia -4.6
Rating Edge
Virginia +121.5

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Virginia
Virginia
1622.1
Florida State
1500.6
Virginia holds a 121.5-point rating edge.
Virginia offense
Virginia
Virginia offense
69.3
Florida State defense
42.7
Virginia holds a 26.6-point rating edge.
Florida State offense
Virginia
Virginia defense
77.0
Florida State offense
72.1
Virginia holds a 5.0-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Florida State
Virginia
48.9
Florida State
86.9
Florida State holds a 38.0-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Virginia holds a 121.5-point rating edge.
2
Schedule strength
Florida State holds a 38.0-point rating edge.
3
Virginia offense
Virginia holds a 26.6-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM
SiteFlorida State home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Virginia
Last 3 completed
2–1
WWeek 4 · Delaware
42–3
LWeek 3 · West Virginia
27–38
WWeek 0 · NC State
34–8
Florida State
Last 3 completed
1–2
LWeek 3 · Alabama
36–50
LWeek 1 · SMU
24–27
WWeek 0 · New Mexico State
34–17

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricVirginiaFlorida State
National Rank#48#63
BOA Rating1622.11500.6
Offensive Rating69.372.1
Defensive Rating77.042.7
Schedule Strength48.986.9
Win Probability59.5%40.5%
Projected Points3127

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total58.0
Rating EdgeVirginia +121.5
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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