Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#75 West Virginiaat#45 Iowa State

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#75 West Virginia
BOA rating 1500.6
Win probability
29.4%
Projected
20
#45 Iowa State
BOA rating 1597.5
BOA Pick
Win probability
70.6%
Projected
31
BOA Pick
Iowa State
Pick Confidence
70.6%
Strong
Projected Margin
Iowa State by 10.5
BOA Spread
Iowa State -10.5
Rating Edge
Iowa State +96.9

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Iowa State
West Virginia
1500.6
Iowa State
1597.5
Iowa State holds a 96.9-point rating edge.
West Virginia offense
Iowa State
West Virginia offense
56.0
Iowa State defense
79.7
Iowa State holds a 23.7-point rating edge.
Iowa State offense
Iowa State
West Virginia defense
26.4
Iowa State offense
66.9
Iowa State holds a 40.5-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Iowa State
West Virginia
70.1
Iowa State
73.7
Iowa State holds a 3.6-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Iowa State holds a 96.9-point rating edge.
2
Iowa State offense
Iowa State holds a 40.5-point rating edge.
3
West Virginia offense
Iowa State holds a 23.7-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 4:00 PM
SiteIowa State home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

West Virginia
Last 3 completed
2–1
LWeek 4 · Oklahoma State
24–41
WWeek 3 · Virginia
38–27
WWeek 1 · Coastal Carolina
31–24
Iowa State
Last 3 completed
1–2
LWeek 4 · Utah
17–31
WWeek 3 · Bowling Green
55–7
LWeek 2 · Iowa
13–16

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricWest VirginiaIowa State
National Rank#75#45
BOA Rating1500.61597.5
Offensive Rating56.066.9
Defensive Rating26.479.7
Schedule Strength70.173.7
Win Probability29.4%70.6%
Projected Points2031

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total51.0
Rating EdgeIowa State +96.9
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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