BOA
Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#84 Syracuseat#76 UConn

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#84 Syracuse
BOA rating 1458.9
Win probability
36.5%
Projected
24
#76 UConn
BOA rating 1499.7
BOA Pick
Win probability
63.5%
Projected
31
BOA Pick
UConn
Pick Confidence
63.5%
Lean
Projected Margin
UConn by 6.6
BOA Spread
UConn -6.6
Rating Edge
UConn +40.8

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
UConn
Syracuse
1458.9
UConn
1499.7
UConn holds a 40.8-point rating edge.
Syracuse offense
UConn
Syracuse offense
21.2
UConn defense
37.8
UConn holds a 16.5-point rating edge.
UConn offense
Syracuse
Syracuse defense
51.9
UConn offense
51.6
Syracuse holds a 0.3-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Syracuse
Syracuse
63.5
UConn
24.8
Syracuse holds a 38.7-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
UConn holds a 40.8-point rating edge.
2
Schedule strength
Syracuse holds a 38.7-point rating edge.
3
Syracuse offense
UConn holds a 16.5-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 4:00 PM
SiteUConn home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Syracuse
Last 2 completed
0–2
LWeek 3 · Pittsburgh
13–27
LWeek 2 · California
18–21
UConn
Last 3 completed
1–2
LWeek 4 · Miami (OH)
21–24
WWeek 3 · Southern Miss
48–20
LWeek 2 · Maryland
14–38

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricSyracuseUConn
National Rank#84#76
BOA Rating1458.91499.7
Offensive Rating21.251.6
Defensive Rating51.937.8
Schedule Strength63.524.8
Win Probability36.5%63.5%
Projected Points2431

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total55.0
Rating EdgeUConn +40.8
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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