Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#83 Navyat#104 Air Force

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#83 Navy
BOA rating 1475.3
BOA Pick
Win probability
53.6%
Projected
28
#104 Air Force
BOA rating 1395.1
Win probability
46.4%
Projected
27
BOA Pick
Navy
Pick Confidence
53.6%
Toss-Up
Projected Margin
Navy by 1.7
BOA Spread
Navy -1.7
Rating Edge
Navy +80.2

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Navy
Navy
1475.3
Air Force
1395.1
Navy holds a 80.2-point rating edge.
Navy offense
Navy
Navy offense
37.3
Air Force defense
12.8
Navy holds a 24.4-point rating edge.
Air Force offense
Air Force
Navy defense
30.5
Air Force offense
51.8
Air Force holds a 21.3-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Navy
Navy
40.1
Air Force
15.3
Navy holds a 24.8-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Navy holds a 80.2-point rating edge.
2
Schedule strength
Navy holds a 24.8-point rating edge.
3
Navy offense
Navy holds a 24.4-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 4:00 PM
SiteAir Force home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Navy
Last 2 completed
0–2
LWeek 4 · UAB
20–24
LWeek 2 · Florida Atlantic
30–38
Air Force
Last 2 completed
1–1
WWeek 4 · Nevada
36–33
LWeek 2 · North Dakota State
32–38

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricNavyAir Force
National Rank#83#104
BOA Rating1475.31395.1
Offensive Rating37.351.8
Defensive Rating30.512.8
Schedule Strength40.115.3
Win Probability53.6%46.4%
Projected Points2827

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total55.0
Rating EdgeNavy +80.2
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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