BOA
Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#120 Wyomingat#88 North Dakota State

Week 5·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#120 Wyoming
BOA rating 1352.0
Win probability
34.9%
Projected
24
#88 North Dakota State
BOA rating 1405.4
BOA Pick
Win probability
65.1%
Projected
31
BOA Pick
North Dakota State
Pick Confidence
65.1%
Strong
Projected Margin
North Dakota State by 7.5
BOA Spread
North Dakota State -7.5
Rating Edge
North Dakota State +53.4

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
North Dakota State
Wyoming
1352.0
North Dakota State
1405.4
North Dakota State holds a 53.4-point rating edge.
Wyoming offense
North Dakota State
Wyoming offense
8.7
North Dakota State defense
62.2
North Dakota State holds a 53.4-point rating edge.
North Dakota State offense
North Dakota State
Wyoming defense
47.8
North Dakota State offense
56.7
North Dakota State holds a 8.9-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Wyoming
Wyoming
9.5
North Dakota State
1.5
Wyoming holds a 8.0-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Wyoming offense
North Dakota State holds a 53.4-point rating edge.
2
Overall power
North Dakota State holds a 53.4-point rating edge.
3
North Dakota State offense
North Dakota State holds a 8.9-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM
SiteNorth Dakota State home game
Week5
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Wyoming
Last 3 completed
1–2
WWeek 4 · Hawai'i
27–10
LWeek 3 · Central Michigan
10–24
LWeek 1 · Colorado State
13–35
North Dakota State
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 3 · Sacramento State
31–10
WWeek 2 · Air Force
38–32
WWeek 0 · Jacksonville State
33–7

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricWyomingNorth Dakota State
National Rank#120#88
BOA Rating1352.01405.4
Offensive Rating8.756.7
Defensive Rating47.862.2
Schedule Strength9.51.5
Win Probability34.9%65.1%
Projected Points2431

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total55.0
Rating EdgeNorth Dakota State +53.4
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_next_game

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_national_week5_postw04_e14671fa1b1d_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_week5_r22_absolute_power_postw04_v4
Component Modelboa_r22_absolute_power_plus_boa_team_components_weekly_v1_asof_w04_v4
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_v2_market_total_margin_realism_v7
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Published9/27/2026, 9:54:55 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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