Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#15 Ole Missat#2 Texas

Week 8·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#15 Ole Miss
BOA rating 1774.6
Win probability
28.5%
Projected
20
#2 Texas
BOA rating 1879.1
BOA Pick
Win probability
71.5%
Projected
31
BOA Pick
Texas
Pick Confidence
71.5%
Strong
Projected Margin
Texas by 11.0
BOA Spread
Texas -11.0
Rating Edge
Texas +104.5

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Texas
Ole Miss
1774.6
Texas
1879.1
Texas holds a 104.5-point rating edge.
Ole Miss offense
Texas
Ole Miss offense
91.7
Texas defense
98.8
Texas holds a 7.0-point rating edge.
Texas offense
Texas
Ole Miss defense
44.8
Texas offense
85.0
Texas holds a 40.2-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Texas
Ole Miss
97.1
Texas
98.5
Texas holds a 1.5-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Texas holds a 104.5-point rating edge.
2
Texas offense
Texas holds a 40.2-point rating edge.
3
Ole Miss offense
Texas holds a 7.0-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 24, 2026, 4:00 AM
SiteTexas home game
Week8
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Ole Miss
Last 3 completed
2–1
LWeek 4 · Florida
28–52
WWeek 3 · LSU
32–24
WWeek 2 · Charlotte
41–9
Texas
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 4 · Tennessee
20–17
WWeek 3 · UTSA
30–6
WWeek 2 · Ohio State
24–23

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricOle MissTexas
National Rank#15#2
BOA Rating1774.61879.1
Offensive Rating91.785.0
Defensive Rating44.898.8
Schedule Strength97.198.5
Win Probability28.5%71.5%
Projected Points2031

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total51.0
Rating EdgeTexas +104.5
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_long_horizon
Open Texas Game Center →

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_texas_outlook_asof_w04_50b58419636e_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_texas_outlook_r1_postw04
Component Modelboa_absolute_power_texas_long_horizon_v1
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_texas_long_horizon_v1
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:55:13 PM
Published9/27/2026, 10:29:44 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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