Week 7 · Texas Game Hub
Texas vs Florida
Friday, October 16, 2026 · TBD · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Game Intelligence2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 28, 2026, 7:09 PM
Current phase · Pregame
One game · one permanent hub
Texas
Matchup
VS
Florida
BOA Game Intelligence Hub
The game in one view
Current forecast, biggest modeled matchup swing, verified game key and forecast movement. Every number comes from the active BOA publication or a preserved prior forecast.
Texas win chance
73.2%
Season Forecast
Projected score
31–19
Texas–opponent
BOA spread
Texas -12.1
Model-implied spread
Biggest swing
-10.3 pts
Texas rushes under 100
Three biggest matchup swings
What moves the model most?
Conditional sensitivity around the current BOA baseline—not a prediction that any condition will happen and not a causal claim.
#1 modeled swing
Texas rushes under 100
62.9%
-10.3 pts
1,644 matched scenarios · Sark 4-8
#2 modeled swing
Opponent rushes 200+
63.6%
-9.6 pts
1,325 matched scenarios · Sark 2-6
#3 modeled swing
Win turnovers + explosives
81.1%
+7.9 pts
2,579 matched scenarios · Sark 21-1
Key to the game
Verified matchup package preparing
BOA will place the highest-priority verified game key here when the matchup package is public-ready.
What changed?
0.7%
-0.0 pts
Texas moved from 0.8% after Week 3 to 0.7% after Week 4.
Prior score
33–17
Current score
31–19
This is version-to-version movement only. BOA does not assign a reason unless a verified source receipt identifies one.
BOA Game Intelligence
Season Forecast · win probability, projected score, spread, ratings and matchup edge.
Forecast Authority
Season Forecast
BOA Ranks
#2 Texas · #14 Florida
Texas Win Chance
73.2%
BOA Pick Confidence
73.2% · Strong
BOA Pick
Texas
Projected Score
Texas 31 · Florida 19
BOA Spread
Texas -12.1
Texas BOA Rating
1879.1 · #2 nationally
Florida BOA Rating
1759.1 · #14 nationally
Rating Edge
+120.0 Texas
National Unit Matchup
0–100 strength rating · national rank · percentile
MetricTexasFlorida
Offense85.0 · #19 · 87th pct90.5 · #11 · 93rd pct
Defense98.8 · #1 · 100th pct55.0 · #61 · 57th pct
Schedule Strength98.5 · #3 · 99th pct91.2 · #13 · 91st pct