Week 6 · Texas Game Hub
Texas vs Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 2:30 PM CT · Cotton Bowl · ABC or ESPN
Game Intelligence2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 28, 2026, 7:09 PM
Current phase · Pregame
One game · one permanent hub
Texas
Matchup
VS
Oklahoma Sooners
BOA Game Intelligence Hub
The game in one view
Current forecast, biggest modeled matchup swing, verified game key and forecast movement. Every number comes from the active BOA publication or a preserved prior forecast.
Texas win chance
70.8%
Season Forecast
Projected score
31–20
Texas–opponent
BOA spread
Texas -10.6
Model-implied spread
Biggest swing
—
Scenario analysis preparing
Three biggest matchup swings
What moves the model most?
Conditional sensitivity around the current BOA baseline—not a prediction that any condition will happen and not a causal claim.
Publishable scenario swings are still preparing for this matchup.
Key to the game
Verified matchup package preparing
BOA will place the highest-priority verified game key here when the matchup package is public-ready.
What changed?
0.7%
+0.0 pts
Texas moved from 0.7% after Week 3 to 0.7% after Week 4.
Prior score
30–21
Current score
31–20
This is version-to-version movement only. BOA does not assign a reason unless a verified source receipt identifies one.
BOA Game Intelligence
Season Forecast · win probability, projected score, spread, ratings and matchup edge.
Forecast Authority
Season Forecast
BOA Ranks
#2 Texas · #26 Oklahoma Sooners
Texas Win Chance
70.8%
BOA Pick Confidence
70.8% · Strong
BOA Pick
Texas
Projected Score
Texas 31 · Oklahoma Sooners 20
BOA Spread
Texas -10.6
Texas BOA Rating
1879.1 · #2 nationally
Oklahoma Sooners BOA Rating
1725.6 · #26 nationally
Rating Edge
+153.5 Texas
National Unit Matchup
0–100 strength rating · national rank · percentile
MetricTexasOklahoma Sooners
Offense44.2 · #82 · 41st pct61.2 · #37 · 74th pct
Defense85.0 · #4 · 98th pct82.4 · #11 · 93rd pct
Schedule Strength98.5 · #3 · 99th pct90.5 · #14 · 91st pct