Week 10 · Texas Game Hub
Texas vs Missouri
Friday, November 6, 2026 · TBD · Memorial Stadium
Game Intelligence2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 28, 2026, 7:09 PM
Current phase · Pregame
One game · one permanent hub
Texas
Matchup
VS
Missouri
BOA Game Intelligence Hub
The game in one view
Current forecast, biggest modeled matchup swing, verified game key and forecast movement. Every number comes from the active BOA publication or a preserved prior forecast.
Texas win chance
67.6%
Season Forecast
Projected score
30–21
Texas–opponent
BOA spread
Texas -8.8
Model-implied spread
Biggest swing
-9.9 pts
Texas rushes under 100
Three biggest matchup swings
What moves the model most?
Conditional sensitivity around the current BOA baseline—not a prediction that any condition will happen and not a causal claim.
#1 modeled swing
Texas rushes under 100
57.7%
-9.9 pts
1,840 matched scenarios · Sark 4-8
#2 modeled swing
Win turnovers + explosives
76.6%
+9.0 pts
2,302 matched scenarios · Sark 21-1
#3 modeled swing
Opponent rushes 200+
59.0%
-8.6 pts
1,426 matched scenarios · Sark 2-6
Key to the game
Verified matchup package preparing
BOA will place the highest-priority verified game key here when the matchup package is public-ready.
What changed?
0.7%
+0.0 pts
Texas moved from 0.7% after Week 3 to 0.7% after Week 4.
Prior score
28–21
Current score
30–21
This is version-to-version movement only. BOA does not assign a reason unless a verified source receipt identifies one.
BOA Game Intelligence
Season Forecast · win probability, projected score, spread, ratings and matchup edge.
Forecast Authority
Season Forecast
BOA Ranks
#2 Texas · #32 Missouri
Texas Win Chance
67.6%
BOA Pick Confidence
67.6% · Strong
BOA Pick
Texas
Projected Score
Texas 30 · Missouri 21
BOA Spread
Texas -8.8
Texas BOA Rating
1879.1 · #2 nationally
Missouri BOA Rating
1696.1 · #32 nationally
Rating Edge
+182.9 Texas
National Unit Matchup
0–100 strength rating · national rank · percentile
MetricTexasMissouri
Offense85.0 · #19 · 87th pct64.6 · #44 · 69th pct
Defense98.8 · #1 · 100th pct69.3 · #38 · 73rd pct
Schedule Strength98.5 · #3 · 99th pct96.4 · #6 · 96th pct