Week 11 · Texas Game Hub
Texas vs LSU
Friday, November 13, 2026 · TBD · Tiger Stadium (LA)
Game Intelligence2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 28, 2026, 7:09 PM
Current phase · Pregame
One game · one permanent hub
Texas
Matchup
VS
LSU
BOA Game Intelligence Hub
The game in one view
Current forecast, biggest modeled matchup swing, verified game key and forecast movement. Every number comes from the active BOA publication or a preserved prior forecast.
Texas win chance
52.8%
Season Forecast
Projected score
24–23
Texas–opponent
BOA spread
Texas -1.4
Model-implied spread
Biggest swing
+12.5 pts
Win turnovers + explosives
Three biggest matchup swings
What moves the model most?
Conditional sensitivity around the current BOA baseline—not a prediction that any condition will happen and not a causal claim.
#1 modeled swing
Win turnovers + explosives
65.3%
+12.5 pts
1,534 matched scenarios · Sark 21-1
#2 modeled swing
Opponent 200+ + Texas under 100
40.5%
-12.3 pts
642 matched scenarios · Sark 1-0
#3 modeled swing
Zero turnovers + win third down
62.7%
+9.9 pts
1,266 matched scenarios · Sark 12-0
Key to the game
Verified matchup package preparing
BOA will place the highest-priority verified game key here when the matchup package is public-ready.
What changed?
0.5%
-0.1 pts
Texas moved from 0.6% after Week 3 to 0.5% after Week 4.
Prior score
27–23
Current score
24–23
This is version-to-version movement only. BOA does not assign a reason unless a verified source receipt identifies one.
BOA Game Intelligence
Season Forecast · win probability, projected score, spread, ratings and matchup edge.
Forecast Authority
Season Forecast
BOA Ranks
#2 Texas · #6 LSU
Texas Win Chance
52.8%
BOA Pick Confidence
52.8% · Toss-Up
BOA Pick
Texas
Projected Score
Texas 24 · LSU 23
BOA Spread
Texas -1.4
Texas BOA Rating
1879.1 · #2 nationally
LSU BOA Rating
1804.4 · #6 nationally
Rating Edge
+74.7 Texas
National Unit Matchup
0–100 strength rating · national rank · percentile
MetricTexasLSU
Offense85.0 · #19 · 87th pct91.9 · #9 · 94th pct
Defense98.8 · #1 · 100th pct93.3 · #8 · 95th pct
Schedule Strength98.5 · #3 · 99th pct92.0 · #12 · 92nd pct