Week 12 · Texas Game Hub
Texas vs Arkansas Razorbacks
Friday, November 20, 2026 · TBD · DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Game Intelligence2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 28, 2026, 7:09 PM
Current phase · Pregame
One game · one permanent hub
Texas
Matchup
VS
Arkansas Razorbacks
BOA Game Intelligence Hub
The game in one view
Current forecast, biggest modeled matchup swing, verified game key and forecast movement. Every number comes from the active BOA publication or a preserved prior forecast.
Texas win chance
88.4%
Season Forecast
Projected score
38–14
Texas–opponent
BOA spread
Texas -24.3
Model-implied spread
Biggest swing
-9.6 pts
Opponent rushes 200+
Three biggest matchup swings
What moves the model most?
Conditional sensitivity around the current BOA baseline—not a prediction that any condition will happen and not a causal claim.
#1 modeled swing
Opponent rushes 200+
78.8%
-9.6 pts
1,123 matched scenarios · Sark 2-6
#2 modeled swing
Texas rushes under 100
80.2%
-8.2 pts
1,533 matched scenarios · Sark 4-8
#3 modeled swing
Texas loses explosive-play margin
81.6%
-6.8 pts
2,829 matched scenarios · Sark 11-8
Key to the game
Verified matchup package preparing
BOA will place the highest-priority verified game key here when the matchup package is public-ready.
What changed?
0.9%
-0.0 pts
Texas moved from 0.9% after Week 3 to 0.9% after Week 4.
Prior score
40–13
Current score
38–14
This is version-to-version movement only. BOA does not assign a reason unless a verified source receipt identifies one.
BOA Game Intelligence
Season Forecast · win probability, projected score, spread, ratings and matchup edge.
Forecast Authority
Season Forecast
BOA Ranks
#2 Texas · #53 Arkansas Razorbacks
Texas Win Chance
88.4%
BOA Pick Confidence
88.4% · Very High
BOA Pick
Texas
Projected Score
Texas 38 · Arkansas Razorbacks 14
BOA Spread
Texas -24.3
Texas BOA Rating
1879.1 · #2 nationally
Arkansas Razorbacks BOA Rating
1581.6 · #53 nationally
Rating Edge
+297.5 Texas
National Unit Matchup
0–100 strength rating · national rank · percentile
MetricTexasArkansas Razorbacks
Offense85.0 · #19 · 87th pct48.1 · #75 · 46th pct
Defense98.8 · #1 · 100th pct40.7 · #87 · 38th pct
Schedule Strength98.5 · #3 · 99th pct99.3 · #2 · 99th pct