Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#2 Texasvs#26 Oklahoma

Week 6·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#2 Texas
BOA rating 1879.1
BOA Pick
Win probability
70.8%
Projected
31
#26 Oklahoma
BOA rating 1725.6
Win probability
29.2%
Projected
20
BOA Pick
Texas
Pick Confidence
70.8%
Strong
Projected Margin
Texas by 10.6
BOA Spread
Texas -10.6
Rating Edge
Texas +153.5

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Texas
Texas
1879.1
Oklahoma
1725.6
Texas holds a 153.5-point rating edge.
Texas offense
Oklahoma
Texas offense
85.0
Oklahoma defense
89.3
Oklahoma holds a 4.3-point rating edge.
Oklahoma offense
Texas
Texas defense
98.8
Oklahoma offense
50.8
Texas holds a 48.0-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Texas
Texas
98.5
Oklahoma
90.5
Texas holds a 8.0-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Texas holds a 153.5-point rating edge.
2
Oklahoma offense
Texas holds a 48.0-point rating edge.
3
Schedule strength
Texas holds a 8.0-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 10, 2026, 7:30 PM
SiteNeutral site
Week6
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Texas
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 4 · Tennessee
20–17
WWeek 3 · UTSA
30–6
WWeek 2 · Ohio State
24–23
Oklahoma
Last 3 completed
1–2
LWeek 4 · Georgia
13–41
WWeek 3 · New Mexico
14–6
LWeek 2 · Michigan
10–17

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricTexasOklahoma
National Rank#2#26
BOA Rating1879.11725.6
Offensive Rating85.050.8
Defensive Rating98.889.3
Schedule Strength98.590.5
Win Probability70.8%29.2%
Projected Points3120

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total51.0
Rating EdgeTexas +153.5
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_long_horizon
Open Texas Game Center →

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_texas_outlook_asof_w04_50b58419636e_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_texas_outlook_r1_postw04
Component Modelboa_absolute_power_texas_long_horizon_v1
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_texas_long_horizon_v1
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:55:13 PM
Published9/27/2026, 10:29:44 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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