Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#14 Floridaat#2 Texas

Week 7·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#14 Florida
BOA rating 1759.1
Win probability
26.8%
Projected
19
#2 Texas
BOA rating 1879.1
BOA Pick
Win probability
73.2%
Projected
31
BOA Pick
Texas
Pick Confidence
73.2%
Strong
Projected Margin
Texas by 12.1
BOA Spread
Texas -12.1
Rating Edge
Texas +120.0

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Texas
Florida
1759.1
Texas
1879.1
Texas holds a 120.0-point rating edge.
Florida offense
Texas
Florida offense
90.5
Texas defense
98.8
Texas holds a 8.2-point rating edge.
Texas offense
Texas
Florida defense
55.0
Texas offense
85.0
Texas holds a 30.0-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Texas
Florida
91.2
Texas
98.5
Texas holds a 7.3-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Texas holds a 120.0-point rating edge.
2
Texas offense
Texas holds a 30.0-point rating edge.
3
Florida offense
Texas holds a 8.2-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffOct 17, 2026, 4:00 AM
SiteTexas home game
Week7
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Florida
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 4 · Ole Miss
52–28
WWeek 3 · Auburn
44–39
WWeek 1 · Florida Atlantic
66–21
Texas
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 4 · Tennessee
20–17
WWeek 3 · UTSA
30–6
WWeek 2 · Ohio State
24–23

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricFloridaTexas
National Rank#14#2
BOA Rating1759.11879.1
Offensive Rating90.585.0
Defensive Rating55.098.8
Schedule Strength91.298.5
Win Probability26.8%73.2%
Projected Points1931

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total50.0
Rating EdgeTexas +120.0
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_long_horizon
Open Texas Game Center →

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_texas_outlook_asof_w04_50b58419636e_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_texas_outlook_r1_postw04
Component Modelboa_absolute_power_texas_long_horizon_v1
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_texas_long_horizon_v1
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:55:13 PM
Published9/27/2026, 10:29:44 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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