Predictions
BOA Matchup Center

#2 Texasat#32 Missouri

Week 10·Active forecast·As of Week 4
Published Forecast2026 · Through Week 4Verified BOA release
Updated Sep 27, 2026, 10:29 PM
#2 Texas
BOA rating 1879.1
BOA Pick
Win probability
67.6%
Projected
30
#32 Missouri
BOA rating 1696.1
Win probability
32.4%
Projected
21
BOA Pick
Texas
Pick Confidence
67.6%
Strong
Projected Margin
Texas by 8.8
BOA Spread
Texas -8.8
Rating Edge
Texas +182.9

How the matchup tilts

Each edge is calculated from the exact team-rating board attached to this published forecast. BOA does not substitute live or staged values here.

Overall power
Texas
Texas
1879.1
Missouri
1696.1
Texas holds a 182.9-point rating edge.
Texas offense
Texas
Texas offense
85.0
Missouri defense
69.3
Texas holds a 15.7-point rating edge.
Missouri offense
Texas
Texas defense
98.8
Missouri offense
64.6
Texas holds a 34.2-point rating edge.
Schedule strength
Texas
Texas
98.5
Missouri
96.4
Texas holds a 2.2-point rating edge.

Matchup pressure points

The three verified areas with the most influence on BOA’s view of the game.

1
Overall power
Texas holds a 182.9-point rating edge.
2
Missouri offense
Texas holds a 34.2-point rating edge.
3
Texas offense
Texas holds a 15.7-point rating edge.

Game context

KickoffNov 7, 2026, 5:00 AM
SiteMissouri home game
Week10
Forecast throughWeek 4
Projection stateActive and published

Recent form

The last three completed games available in the current BOA season database. These are context, not a replacement for the model.

Texas
Last 3 completed
3–0
WWeek 4 · Tennessee
20–17
WWeek 3 · UTSA
30–6
WWeek 2 · Ohio State
24–23
Missouri
Last 3 completed
2–1
LWeek 4 · Mississippi State
24–31
WWeek 3 · Troy
27–17
WWeek 2 · Kansas
38–21

Matchup Comparison

Current BOA team-rating context alongside the published pregame forecast.

MetricTexasMissouri
National Rank#2#32
BOA Rating1879.11696.1
Offensive Rating85.064.6
Defensive Rating98.869.3
Schedule Strength98.596.4
Win Probability67.6%32.4%
Projected Points3021

Forecast Snapshot

Projected Total51.0
Rating EdgeTexas +182.9
As-of Week4
Forecast StatusCurrent
Information Statein_season_long_horizon
Open Texas Game Center →

Model Lineage

Forecast Versionboa_2026_texas_outlook_asof_w04_50b58419636e_v1
Model Versionboa_2026_texas_outlook_r1_postw04
Component Modelboa_absolute_power_texas_long_horizon_v1
Score/Spread Modelboa_score_spread_texas_long_horizon_v1
Score Displayfootball_score_realism_v2 · unchanged
Generated9/27/2026, 9:55:13 PM
Published9/27/2026, 10:29:44 PM
Understanding confidence

BOA Pick Confidence is the model-estimated win probability of the selected winner. It is a probabilistic estimate, not a guarantee. Current rating and schedule-strength values provide matchup context. BOA preserves the published raw forecast; its football-score realism layer only converts integer display scores when needed while leaving win probability, modeled margin, and spread unchanged.

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